The madness is back…or is it? The 2026 NCAA Tournament that ends Thursday comes at a time of change — and, some say, crisis — in the sport.
I don’t want to sound pessimistic, but it seems like an open question now as to whether the kind of competition that has been a favorite of many fans like myself for decades still exists. My hope is that in the next few weeks they will give you confirmation that it still works.
Did Goliath kill David?
Jaw-dropping upsets make the NCAA Tournament what it is. They made it feel magical and contributed a lot to its enduring appeal. And just a few years ago, those Cinderella stories were written more often than ever as the No. 1 seed. 15 makes it all the way to the Elite 8 in 2021 (Oral Roberts) and 2022 (St. Peter’s) and the Sweet 16 in 2023 (Princeton). That 2023 tournament also included the second elimination of a No. 1 seed by a No. 1 seed. 16 (Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue) and a Final Four trip to the No. 9 Florida Atlantic.
But as it is, the parade of underdogs has stopped. In each of the last two tournaments, only one double-digit seed made it through the first weekend — and both were from power conferences. Last year’s Elite 8 and Final Four matchups were a chalk-fest. It’s hard not to conclude that the dramatic changes in the sport that have come through the NIL and the transfer portal have benefited the bluebloods, but have they fundamentally changed the competition itself? That may depend on this year’s schedule. If the top seed and power summits crush the average again, the pattern will become more visible. We’ll find out if there’s any magic left in March.
More from the NCAA Tournament
If there will be magic…
I have to believe it’s still possible, so I’m looking at three potential first-round upsets. And I mean real upsets — not least winning power conference teams with double-digit numbers.
No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech
Conference rival Miami (Ohio) has all the attention, but the Zips may have been the better team in the MAC. They suffered a heartbreaking loss to Miami in January and have won 19 of 20 games since then with their only loss coming against a very good Troy team (more on the Trojans in a minute). Texas Tech, on the other hand, lost star JT Toppin last month and seemed to be feeling the effects, throwing three straight in this game.
No. 13 Troy over No. 4 Nebraska
The Trojans were out of the West earlier this season and eliminated San Diego State, one of the first four teams left out of the tournament by the selection committee. Two nights later, they took USC to triple overtime on the road before falling by a point.
Troy knows how to play against a strong conference opponent, especially one like Nebraska, which after a 20-0 start to the season has gone 6-6. The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game, but have been victims of several first-round upsets. This could be one of these.
No. 13 California Baptist over No. 5 Kansas
The Lancers use a unique defense and have one of the top scorers in the country in Dominique Daniels. But this pick really boils down to my skepticism about Kansas. They are capable and capable, to be sure, of winning in both Arizona and Houston. But they could be confused again, with losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State, and no one knows what version of their star Darryn Peterson will emerge. Since winning the national title in 2022, the Jayhawks have yet to make it out of the opening weekend. There are enough question marks here to make me dream of a March Madness upset.
Another version of Cinderella
Last year’s “Cinderella” was the No. 10 seed, Arkansas. Two years ago, it was the No. 1 seed. 11, NC State. When the new season begins, this may be the kind of March magic we now have to fix – teams that finished in the bottom half of power conferences start to run when it really matters. Who could be this year’s version? It could be Texas A&M, the No. 1 seed. 10 in the South.
The Aggies play “Sky Football,” a relentless, high-energy style that can overwhelm opponents. It has become a trademark of their first-year coach Bucky McMillan, who nearly led Samford to an upset of Kansas in the 2024 NCAA tournament.
A potential matchup I’m looking forward to
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas in the Sweet 16
The tournament’s top seed, Duke, has to contend with a stacked regional in the East, which means the least favorite to take down the nets in most betting markets is actually Arizona. They certainly deserve that distinction. The Wildcats are 32-2 overall and enter the tournament on a nine-game winning streak that includes four wins against top-ten teams. They are the best team from the best conference and feature a rare balanced attack; all five starters are averaging double digits in scoring. But what a test they’ll get in the Sweet 16 for Arkansas and its star Darius Acuff Jr., who may be the tournament’s most explosive and exciting star. He averaged 22 points per game but scored more than that in all four SEC tournament games, leading the Razorbacks to their first conference crown in 26 years. The winner of this match – if it happens – may go on to win the title.
The winner of the NCAA Tournament (or kiss of death) will be…
Here are my national championship picks for each of the past five tournaments:
2021: Illinois lost in the Round of 32
2022: Villanova lost in the final four
2023: Duke lost in the Round of 32
2024: Auburn lost in the Round of 64
2025: St. John’s lost in the Round of 32
That’s just bad, so much so that I wonder if by choosing a team I’m actually conjuring up some kind of mystical force to prevent it. Since this is possible, I can’t in good conscience pick a team that I want to beat all of and that, deep down, I think can really run (I won’t say the name, but it rhymes with “St. Bohn”). So instead, I’ll go with Arizona’s long overdue depth and balance. Wildlife fans, I’m sorry to do this to you.
