HONG KONG – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s purge of top military officials goes deeper than previously thought, researchers say, threatening the People’s Liberation Army.
The crackdown, documented in two new studies released Tuesday, includes the recent dismissal of two top Xi generals.
Purges have been common under Xi, but observers were shocked last month when it was announced that General Zhang Youxia, the top military officer behind Xi himself, was being investigated for serious “moral and legal violations”.
Another 101 generals and lieutenant generals have been purged or may be purged from 2022, representing 52% of the PLA’s top leadership positions, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said in a report released on Tuesday.
“This number is surprising and surprising, it shows the depth of Xi’s campaign and the unprecedented intensity of the PLA leadership,” wrote M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the report’s nine authors.
Replacing leaders with such experience will take time, the authors say, raising questions about China’s ability to carry out major military operations such as a possible invasion of Taiwan, an island Beijing claims.
“Xi’s show of lack of faith in his military is good from the perspective of the United States and Taiwan for deterring aggression,” wrote co-author Thomas J. Christensen, a professor of public and international affairs at Columbia University. although he noted that it would still be “relatively easy” for China to block the democratic government.
China’s Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from NBC News.
Of the 101 senior officials, 36 were formally purged and 65 were missing or absent from important meetings, the researchers said.
According to the report, the purge affected all four of China’s armed forces – the army, the air force, the air force and the rocket force – with the rocket force hit hard during an investigation into corrupt procurement practices.
The number of removals has increased since 2022, when there was one, from 62 last year and 11 so far this year.
Those removed include officials Xi handpicked and quickly promoted, as well as close associates such as Zhang, his lifelong friend.
He was also removed last month Gen. Liu Zhenli, like Zhang, was a member of the Central Military Commission, the PLA’s top decision-making body. Of its seven members in 2022, only Xi and one general remain.
While corruption is often cited as a reason for the removal of officials, experts say other factors including performance, policy differences or questions of credibility may also play a role.
Xi made a rare reference to the purge of the military earlier this month, telling the military in a public speech that in the past year they have grown stronger in the fight against corruption and that the rank and file are “trustworthy.”
The CSIS report said the leadership purge did not significantly disrupt the PLA’s operations or general operations. But they left a high number of vacancies, as only 11 of the 52 key military leadership positions.
In a separate report also released on Tuesday, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said the purge had left China’s military “operating with serious deficiencies in its organization.”
According to the annual report, a survey of the world’s military, the purge may not be over and may have a negative impact on the readiness to use force, Reuters reports. But the report said the results were “temporary” and that China’s military was likely to continue to modernize.
While the purge may damage morale and trust, it’s hard to know how much it actually affected the notoriously divisive military that last fought in Vietnam in 1979, said Drew Thompson, a senior U.S. military official. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“It’s hard to measure effectiveness, especially in a non-deployed political force, with little combat experience,” Thompson, who was not involved in either study, told NBC News in an interview.
China’s military has been able to “consistently fill positions” since Xi’s purge began, said Thompson, the former director of China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the US Department of Defense. What is most worrying, he said, is the quality and experience of the newly promoted police officers.
Will they do well in their work? Are they encouraged to succeed in their jobs?” he said. “I think these are open questions.”
