A majority of registered voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran and believe the US should not have taken military action against the country, according to a new NBC News poll.
While support for the White House is largely divided along party lines, a small but significant slice of Republicans is unhappy with the decision to go to war in the Middle East. There was also a big divide between young and old voters in the early days of the attack.
Fifty-four percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared to 41% who approve and another 5% who say they have no opinion or aren’t sure. The same share, 52%, say the US should not have taken military action, while 41% say it should have and 7% say they are not sure.
The survey provides the first snapshot of how American voters are digesting the massive military effort launched by a president who campaigned on “endless wars” in the past as he seeks to return to the White House in 2024.
“This is a lower level of support than most major military measures we’ve seen,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the poll along with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
“Attitudes change in this country based on results,” McInturff said. “Things could get worse if the results go bad and things could get better if there’s a stable, better result here.”
An NBC News poll from early 2002 to early 2003 found a majority of Americans saying the US should take military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq.
In October 2001, during the first stages of the strikes in Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks, 87% said they supported President George W. Bush’s approach to the war on terror, and the same number approved airstrikes against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
In both cases, public opinion changed over the years, with a clear majority of Americans eventually saying the conflicts were unjustified.
A new survey began to assess sentiments about the strikes on Iran on Saturday, hours after the US government announced the start of its campaign, and it was in the field amid a series of important new developments – including the news that the strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that six members of the US were killed, that Iran retaliated by launching strikes on US allies in the Middle East and that the US withdrew from the region.
The Trump administration has signaled that the strikes will continue to increase in the coming days, and further developments could bring further changes in public sentiment, as Republicans and Democrats in Congress debate the consequences and possible consequences of the US taking its most important military action in years.
The president and his allies argued that the strikes were necessary to protect Americans from an “imminent threat,” accusing Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon and failing to deter the country through diplomatic negotiations. Many Democrats in Congress rejected the move, criticizing the president for what he did as a war of choice, not necessity.
The results show a clear, if expected, partisan divide on the issue: A majority of Democrats, 89%, say the US should not have struck Iran. Among independents, 58% agree.
Republicans overall support the strikes: 77% say the US should have struck Iran, while 15% disagree. But there’s a stark difference between Republicans who identify with Trump’s Make America Great Again movement and those who don’t.
A full 90% of MAGA-identified Republicans support strikes, with only 5% saying they don’t think they should have been introduced. But Republicans who do not see themselves as part of MAGA are divided, with 54% supporting strikes and 36% opposing them.
Margins of error are larger for these subgroups, but the results still indicate significant differences between different subgroups. Trump built much of his 2024 presidential campaign around the idea of an “America First” approach to foreign policy that was highly critical of past administrations that he said plunged the country into perpetual conflict around the world. Now, the Republican base is grappling with a new controversy.
McInturff said the split within the GOP is an important reminder about the loyalty of the president’s base and the part of the party that is “soft” on Trump.
“Independent MAGA Republicans are overwhelmingly supportive of Trump and that the political base has not been shaken — and so far, indeed, it has not been shaken so far on military action in Iran,” he said.
An NBC News Decision Desk Poll from last June found a similar divide when examining Trump’s last major military action against Iran. Although there was some concern about that campaign bombing among prominent figures aligned with MAGA, that poll of US adults, including voters and non-voters, showed rank and file Republicans aligned with MAGA were overwhelmingly in favor of a 2025 presidential act. Meanwhile, the so-called establishment Republicans continued to support, but on a smaller scale.
A new NBC News poll also shows deep divisions over the Iran war by age, with younger voters more bitter about the strikes than older voters.
Two-thirds of voters under the age of 35 say the US should not have struck Iran, a sentiment shared by 53% of those aged between 35 and 49. A narrow majority, 52%, of those aged between 50 and 64 support strikes, while those aged 65 and over are split.
There is also an academic divide in research – an increasingly common feature of America’s divided politics. Voters without a college degree are almost evenly split on the strikes, while those with a bachelor’s or graduate degree strongly believe the US should not have struck Iran.
And there is a significant gender divide as well, with 60% of women saying the US should not have taken military action against Iran, compared to 52% of men who believe the US should have struck Iran.
The public’s negative feelings about US military action are not driven by any warm feelings toward Iran. Overall, 61% of registered voters view Iran negatively, while just 8% have a positive view of the country. Another 28% view Iran neutrally.
Interviews with voters in St. Joseph, Michigan, on Wednesday shed more light on how Americans, especially those who supported the president in the past, are processing the early days of the war.
William Miskiewicz, a 65-year-old retired police officer, told NBC News that “we supported Israel” and that it was important for America to be “loyal to our friends.”
“I like whatever the president does because I support the president,” he said, adding that he thinks people are more focused on their own things and things like the price of fuel instead of “what you are willing to contribute to help your country.”
But Vincent Nemethy, a 62-year-old artist who previously voted for Trump, said he did not support the strikes because he thought the US should “step back” and “worry about our people.”
“He said he would try to get out of the wars, but he got us into them. He doesn’t include himself, he puts other people, we have lost victims,” he said, adding that although he doesn’t regret voting for Trump, “some of the things he did. [are] not at my level.”
The NBC News poll polled 1,000 registered voters Feb. 27-March 3 with a mix of phone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error for the perfect poll is plus or minus 3.1 points. Multiple questions about the Iran war were asked of 753 registered voters as of Feb. 28, and those questions have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points.
