On the morning of Feb. 1, Nancy Guthrie was expected at her friend’s house in Tucson, Arizona, to watch a live church service, as she used to do most Sundays.
But when the 84-year-old mother of “TODAY” host Savannah Guthrie never showed up, those friends alerted her children — sparking a three-week-long missing person investigation.
An ongoing investigation into the disappearance of Guthrie, who was last seen around 9:45 p.m. Jan. 31 after having dinner with his family, it has now involved local, state and federal law enforcement agencies and has received international attention. All members of Guthrie’s family — including his three children, who pleaded for his return online and said they were willing to pay for his return, and their spouses — have been named as possible suspects in the case, according to Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos.
Although authorities believe Guthrie may have been taken from his home, no suspects or persons of interest have been publicly identified. DNA from her home did not match any samples in the FBI’s database, and authorities are still asking for the public’s help in identifying the man seen in photos and videos captured by Guthrie’s doorbell camera the morning she disappeared.
However, investigators said the suspect’s gun, his unique bag and backpack – sold only at Walmart – could be the best clues and the best way to get answers.
In an interview with NBC News on Sunday, Nanos said authorities are getting closer to identifying other items of clothing seen in the doorbell camera video, including shoes, pants, a shirt and a jacket.
While updates on the investigation have slowed down, experts told NBC News that officials still have many avenues to pursue as the investigation continues into its fourth week.
Identifying a suspect through forensic genetic genealogy
Investigators found several sources of DNA in and around the crime scene, but the tests did not yield results, leading them to take serious steps to move the case forward.
A glove was found 2 miles from Guthrie’s home that appears to be the same glove worn by the doorbell man. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department, however, revealed that the DNA found on the glove did not match any DNA in the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS), which has 19 million criminal DNA profiles nationally and more than 1 million law enforcement profiles. From Arizona alone, there are 434,000 offender profiles in CODIS, according to the FBI.
Officials say they are now examining DNA found at Guthrie’s home – which does not match him or anyone known to have been there recently – through a program called forensic genetic genealogy in hopes of identifying the suspect. The genetic sample is hybrid, Nanos said, meaning it contains genetic information from at least two people and can take a long time to analyze.
“We believe we may have DNA there that may be our suspect, but we won’t know until that DNA is separated, sorted, maybe put into CODIS, maybe genetic,” he said.
Dr. David Mittelman, a geneticist and CEO of Othram Inc., explained that this process takes DNA – often found at crime scenes – and first turns it into a code. It is then entered into a database containing DNA samples from several million people and 500,000 genetic markers.
From that data, the system creates a family tree based on that person’s DNA markers, which matches the unknown suspect with potential relatives to narrow down who might be looking for investigators.
Although the match isn’t always straightforward, Mittelman said it will at least point officials to a close relative of the person tested for DNA, narrowing the suspect pool in a big way. He said this is called the “identity hypothesis.”
“So in the worst case, it will connect you with a very close relative, and the best case is getting it from your person,” he said.
It is then up to the investigators to identify and question that person to determine if they are the true suspect.
Mittelman added that it is important for investigators to carefully obtain enough DNA at the scene of the crime and stressed the importance of working quickly to identify the subject early in the investigation.
Othram often works with law enforcement agencies to help solve crimes, including creating a profile of Bryan Kohberger, the man who killed four University of Idaho students in 2022. Mittelman declined to comment on whether Othram is cooperating with law enforcement in Guthrie’s case.
Genetics expert, CeCe Moore, said that this process may take hours and months to be completed but once the results are in, it will hit the test. He added that he is “very hopeful” that the program will identify the suspect.
“If I were the abductor, I would be very worried right now, because if genetic genealogy is used, he will be identified. It’s too early,” he said.
Tracking and listening to the community
Nanos on Sunday described the investigation as growing rather than abating, as detectives continue to process evidence.
The public interest in Guthrie’s disappearance has helped spur an influx of tips to investigators.
The Pima County Sheriff’s Department and the FBI say they have received tens of thousands of public leads since Guthrie’s disappearance. The FBI is offering a $100,000 reward for any information leading to the arrest of Guthrie or his captors, and an additional $102,500 reward is being offered by Tucson Crime Stoppers, known locally as 88-CRIME.
Investigators said they are already following up on leads based on evidence gathered, including working with Walmart to identify who may have purchased the backpack seen with the man in the doorbell video.
They have been trying to find the gun that the man was holding. Firearms expert John Correia said it appeared to have been stored in a bar and was not used by an experienced gun owner.
Chris Burbank, the former Salt Lake City police chief, said that if he investigates the case, he will also release resources to investigate the unverified ransom notes that were apparently sent to several news outlets. NBC News has not independently verified the ransom notes, and law enforcement officials have not said whether they are legitimate.
He also said that investigators can use artificial intelligence to trace any social media traces because “most of the time, the people involved in this leave some kind of social media.”
“We’ve collected all the physical evidence, we’ve done everything I can think of at the scene, now it’s time – let’s really start putting together all the other information that’s out there,” Burbank said.
The investigation is far from cold
Three law enforcement experts who spoke to NBC News all emphasized that while investigators have not arrested or located Guthrie, the case is far from cold.
“I would be surprised if this high-profile case is closed before six months, a year,” Burbank said.
They all agreed that the officials never want the case to cool down, because if the investigation continues for a long time, the spread of the news will increase, which leads to the case continuing to attract attention, therefore, to continue with tips and help from the public.
A case is only taken cold when all available leads have dried up, and no further evidence will be considered. Considering the thousands of leads still found in the Guthrie case, it’s in no immediate danger of being put on the back burner.
At some point, however, once investigators have eliminated all possible suspects, “you’re going to start putting your resources elsewhere, because there are other cases where you have a higher percentage of solving them,” Burbank said.
Anne E Schwartz, a communications expert and former journalist who first broke the story of serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer, added that the public may see a “gradual dwindling of resources” once investigators clear all leads.
Burbank noted that high-level cases like this one will never be 100% cold because there will always be an investigator dedicated to making calls and services working in the background to continue solving them.
Last week, Nanos suggested the same thing.
“As long as we have the ability to chase the lead, it’s not cold,” he said. “We will not give up, we will find Nancy, we will find out who did this.
