WASHINGTON – The Defense Department is sending a large number of additional weapons to the Middle East, including more warships, air defense aircraft and submarines, in preparation for a possible military strike on Iran if President Donald Trump makes that decision, according to US officials and information from public monitoring.
The military build-up comes as the US and Iran continue to pursue diplomatic talks that could help avoid conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted “good progress” after informal talks with Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law Jared Kushner in Geneva on Tuesday. White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said Wednesday there was “progress” in the talks but “there are still many details to be discussed.”
The prospect of success seemed far from divided sides on key issues. The Trump administration has insisted that Iran agree to limits on its missile program, as well as its nuclear program, which Tehran has so far refused to question.
Trump’s top national security advisers met in the Situation Room at the White House on Wednesday to discuss Iran, according to a senior administration official. No final decisions on possible military action have been made, the official said, as the US awaits a written response from Iran that could resolve some of the controversial areas of disagreement.
Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the second aircraft carrier that Trump sent to the Middle East, and accompanying ships are crossing the Atlantic Ocean into the Mediterranean Sea, according to US officials. It is expected there in the coming days, and the nuclear submarine remains in the Mediterranean.
When they arrive, they will join the USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying ships forming its strike group in the Persian Gulf, according to US officials.
A number of other ships are also in the region, including at least one littoral combat ship, a guided-missile destroyer in the Red Sea and guided-missile destroyers in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, according to a ship tracker at the US Naval Institute.
Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly warned in recent years that they would militarily block the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply, if the country is attacked. Iranian media reported on Tuesday that parts of the Strait of Hormuz will close for several hours due to “security measures” while Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducts military exercises there.
The aircraft carriers and accompanying warships allow the US to attack Iran without drawing on US aircraft based in the Arab Gulf countries. Those governments, fearing retaliation against Iran’s missiles, said they would not allow an attack to be launched on their territory.
It is not clear whether any attack on Iran would involve only the US military or a joint operation with the Israeli military.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Israel on February 28 to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a State Department official.
Netanyahu, who visited Washington last week, is concerned about the status of the ongoing Iran talks, and Rubio will give him an update, a second State Department official said. Israel opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and Trump withdrew the US from the deal during his first term.
During street protests against the Iranian regime in January, Trump promised protesters that “help is on the way.” But no US intervention took place, and Iranian security forces shot thousands of unarmed protesters across the country. The American-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said in a Sunday report that 7,015 people have been killed since the protests began in late December.
Trump has said publicly that he has put the idea of military action on the table because Iran has stopped its crackdown on protesters. Since then he has conducted diplomatic negotiations.
The build-up of US forces in the region is similar to that which preceded the airstrikes in June when Trump ordered against three nuclear sites in Iran, when two carriers were sent to the Arabian Sea.
The June strikes were the first time the US launched airstrikes on Iranian soil. Operation Midnight Hammer lasted less than 30 minutes, according to the Pentagon. In this case, US air strikes on Iran could last a long time, especially if Trump tries to inflict permanent – or lethal – damage on the regime.
If negotiations with Iran fail, Trump has a range of options in front of him, including an all-out attack on Iran to take out the regime and limited strikes to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear facilities and possibly removing ballistic missile sites, or he could do nothing at all. NBC News reported that Israeli officials told Trump in December that they wanted to strike Iran’s missile sites.
The US probably has enough military power in the region to carry out limited strikes, depending on the objectives, according to a retired senior defense official.
Depending on what Trump decides, targets could include Iran’s air defense systems, which were already damaged in the June war between Israel and Iran, missile and explosives storage facilities, drone manufacturing plants and bases used by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij army, both of which played a leading role in last month’s deadly crackdown on anti-government protests, which killed thousands of protesters last month.
If Trump were to attempt a coup, he could order a series of covert actions, as well as “decapitation” strikes aimed at killing the country’s leadership, including the country’s highest authority, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Any strikes on the nuclear facilities could include an attack on Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, or Pickaxe Mountain, an underground bunker dug into the side of a mountain that was not targeted in the June airstrike, former officials and experts said. Since June, Iran has renewed construction work at the site, which is close to another nuclear facility, Natanz, according to commercial satellite images and experts.
“My sense of the administration is that they’re going to use a policy of weakening, or weakening the regime, and if the inevitable result of that is regime change, that’s great,” said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that has called for tougher sanctions and other measures against Iran.
Some Middle East experts believe that if Trump decides to pursue a regime change war, he will need more assets in the region than now.
“I don’t think they have enough stuff out there,” said a retired defense official.
A number of air defense capabilities, including Patriot systems, are not all operational, according to a person familiar with the matter and a retired senior defense official.
How Trump decides to proceed with Iran may create perceptions about America’s power in the world, given his promise to the protesters, and whether a generation of Iranians is losing faith in the US, regional analysts said.
“America’s credibility is on the line,” Dubowitz said.
Leavitt said Wednesday that Trump is still considering military options but is hopeful of a deal with Tehran. “I believe the Iranians are expected to come back to us with more information in the next few weeks, so the president will continue to watch how this plays out,” he said.
Leavitt also noted the strikes Trump ordered against Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities in June and said the Iranians should make a deal.
“The president has been very clear, however, regarding Iran and any country around the world [that] Diplomacy remains his first option, and Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump and this administration,” he said.
