The world is now facing rising prices and possibly even shortages of energy and ready-made food – and that’s if the conflict ends tomorrow.
“The Iran crisis is a defining event, like the fall of the Berlin Wall or 9/11,” believes Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at Oxford University. “The events that are coming to all of us are very big, even if it is a peaceful agreement today,” he told NBC News in an interview.
The US and Israel launched their attack at 1:15 am ET on Feb. 28, the attack Trump was proud of surprised even US allies.
It comes as American negotiators were talking to their Iranian counterparts about an agreement to contain the regime’s nuclear program, after its deadly campaign against protesters.
Whatever the original reason, Trump now seems focused on solving the global oil and supply chain crisis that didn’t exist before the bombings began.
The war has also damaged America’s standing among its European allies, who are not satisfied with Trump’s views and his demands to help solve the problem.
At home, the war is unpopular with most Americans, polls show, and has prompted open criticism from elements of Trump’s MAGA organization.
The attack “makes it clear that we are now in an era where there may be something right,” added Francopan, author of “The Silk Roads: A New History of the World,” which examines the influence of the Persian Empire before Iran. We’re used to seeing this in “violent nations,” but Washington’s choice of force over dialogue, he added, “will once again reflect how the world sees the West.”
What happens in the coming days and weeks will depend on many political, military and economic factors.
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Trump says talks to end the conflict are ongoing. He extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until April 6, pausing his attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure amid talks he said were “going very well.”
That has been rejected by Iran, as well as professional observers. The US has attacked Iran during or directly after previous negotiations, which means that trust is low.
“I’ve been talking to negotiators and there are no negotiations,” said Ali Vaez at the International Crisis Group, a Belgium-based think tank that was involved in the landmark Obama-era 2015 deal, from which Trump withdrew. “There was an exchange of messages urging the parties to reach the table. But the conditions of the two sides are so different that there is no hope of a high-level meeting soon,” said Vaez.
Using Pakistan as a mediator, the Trump administration has submitted a 15-point “peace plan” to Iran, which focuses on preventing it from developing nuclear weapons, something Tehran has denied it is trying to do. Iran confirmed receiving this proposal, and immediately met its major demands.
“The conflict is at an end because the groups are fighting different battles,” said Vaez. “The US and Israel are fighting a war aimed at weakening Iran, while Iran is fighting a war for survival.”
The Iranian view has always been that “while the US and Israel have a higher capacity to inflict pain on them, the Iranians have a higher threshold to absorb pain,” Vaez said. “Since it is not falling, Iran is winning from its perspective.”
Both of these teams also believe that they still have cards to play.
The US is diverting thousands of marines, sailors and paratroopers to the region, and has refused to rule out a land attack that would try to seize Iran’s key oil base on Kharg Island or break Iran’s hold over Hormuz.
“The United States military is meeting or exceeding all of its benchmarks, and the President’s decisive action immediately removes short- and long-term threats to the United States and our allies,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement to NBC News.
In some ways, the US seems determined to free Iran’s energy from the waterway, and White House officials say that the forces are “focused on systematically eliminating the ability of the terrorist regime of Iran to disrupt the free flow of energy.”
