John Cornyn fights for political survival as voting begins in Texas: From the political desk.

This is the online version of the From the Politics Deska daily newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC Political News team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

On today’s show, Steve Kornacki takes a look at Texas’ GOP Senate primary stake as voting begins. Also, Sahil Kapur reports on growing support for President Donald Trump’s Senate-backed election bill.

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– Adam Wollner

John Cornyn is fighting for political survival as early voting begins in Texas

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Early voting began today in Texas, where primary voting on March 3 will serve as the de facto start to the midterms. The biggest question: Can GOP Sen. John Cornyn avoid becoming the first member of parliament since 2012 to be denied nomination?

The Republican race may not be officially decided on primary night, as the contest will continue if no candidate breaks 50% of the vote. But the signs are dire for Cornyn, and a disappointing showing in the first round of voting could seal his fate.

A poll of top voters from the University of Houston released last week showed Cornyn lagging behind the Texas Attorney General. Ken Paxton38% to 31%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt running in third place with 17%. Worryingly for Cornyn, the polls showed him losing by 11 points to Paxton in one contest. And it found that Paxton was more popular with GOP voters: He had a favorable rating of 50 points compared to 31 for Cornyn.

Cornyn and his allies have taken to the airwaves to attack Paxton, who was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in 2023 and vacated the state Senate. He also agreed in 2024 to pay nearly $300,000 as part of a settlement to end a decade-long fraud case. Cornyn’s hope is that Republican voters won’t be turned away from Paxton for fear that he will make a mature policy for Democrats and put the seat at risk in November.

But a University of Houston poll found Cornyn and Paxton running nearly evenly against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico. Paxton may also seek to galvanize GOP voters by touting his ability to win re-election as attorney general in 2022, even as his legal woes are on full display. Paxton won that election by 9.8 points, just behind Republican Gov. Greg Abbottof ‘ 10.9-per-point in his re-election bid.

If they are already inclined to take a chance on him, Texas Republicans may also be willing to extend Paxton the benefit of the doubt based on the President. Donald TrumpAn unexpected victory for the state in 2024 (by about 14 points) and the fact that no Democrat has won a statewide contest in 32 years. Republicans are also convinced that both Crockett and Talarico have taken positions that will make them ineligible for election in the fall.

Ultimately, Cornyn’s best — and perhaps only — chance for survival may depend on convincing Trump to endorse him. The president, who remained neutral in his comments to reporters last night, does not like to attach his name to people who do not have a clear path to victory. Obviously, if Cornyn continues to finish behind Paxton on March 3, he will be at a much weaker level in the race — and it will be harder to sell him to Trump.

Voting in the Democratic primary has been difficult to gauge. A University of Houston poll put Crockett ahead by 7 points, 46% to 39%, but a January Emerson College poll gave Talarico the lead and another poll from Texas Public Opinion Research showed a dead heat.

➡️ Related: Host of the “Late Show”. Stephen Colbert he said that CBS did not air its interview yesterday with Talarico for fear of the Federal Communications Commission. Read more →

Support for Trump’s election bill is growing in the Senate, but Democrats are still blocking it

Written by Sahil Kapur

SAVE America’s legislation to require proof of citizenship nationwide to vote now has the support of 50 Republicans.

The bill was supported by the President Donald Trump and passed the House last week, meaning the Senate’s 60-vote rule is the only thing standing in the way of it becoming law.

The numbers confirm the battle over the bill on the Senate floor as the Majority Leader John ThuneRS.D., promised a vote. But he warned last week that it was “not even close” to enough votes to end the filibuster, despite Trump’s calls to do so. If the filibuster remains intact, the legislation will still fail as Democrats are sure to use every tool to block it.

Sen. Mike LeeR-Utah, the primary sponsor of the bill, is pushing Republicans to use existing laws to force Democrats to participate in a “talking filibuster” on the Senate floor. The idea is to tire out the opposing Democrats and pass them. But the strategy is a long shot, viewed by most of the former Senate as likely to fail if attempted. The rules make it much easier for a small minority to support the 60-vote threshold than for the majority to override its will and advance a bill with 51 votes.

Sen. Susan CollinsR-Maine, who is facing a competitive re-election bid this fall, was the 50th Republican sponsor of the legislation. He said the bill’s revisions address his earlier concerns by simplifying the citizenship voting rule, instead requiring states to recognize it only when a person is registered to vote.

But Collins has made it clear that he does not support filibustering to pass it.

“I am opposed to the abolition of the legislative filibuster,” Collins said. “The filibuster is an important protection of minority rights that requires senators to work together for the common good.”

Others on the team have yet to sign the measure, including the Sens. Lisa MurkowskiR-Alaska, and Mitch McConnellR-Ky.

Read more →

That’s all from the Politburo for now. Today’s newsletter is compiled by Adam Wollner.

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