The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down many of the Trump administration’s taxes has opened up a question with a potentially lucrative answer: Will businesses — and perhaps consumers — get their money back?
Short answer: Who knows.
In its lengthy opinion Friday, the court did not provide a clear next step for the restitution — something Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted in his dissenting opinion.
“The Court is silent today on whether, and if so, how the Government should go about recovering the billions of dollars it has collected from manufacturers,” Kavanaugh wrote. But that process can be ‘chaotic,’ as was acknowledged during oral argument.”
Hundreds of companies, including major retailer Costco, have already filed lawsuits to get a refund on the money they paid in Trump’s taxes.
According to December data from US Customs and Border Protection, nearly $130 billion has been collected from Trump funds spent under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act. One estimate from the University of Pennsylvania found that the value is now more than $175 billion, according to Reuters.
Economists have noted that the process for companies to receive reimbursement for paid services is not clear. But US businesses that may be eligible for refunds are not the only ones to take the economic burden of Trump’s tax.
Consumers have had to pay more to keep up with rising business costs. An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published last week found that nearly 90% of the “economic burden” of taxes falls on consumers and businesses.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said in a statement that there is “no legal way for consumers and many small businesses to get back the money they have already paid.”
“Instead, big corporations and their armies of lawyers and lobbyists can sue for tax refunds, and then just pocket the money,” he said. “It’s another example of how the game is strengthened.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker sent a letter to the president on Friday demanding $1,700 in refunds to “all Illinois families.” According to his book, Pritzker said this would bring the total amount owed to more than $8 billion.
President Donald Trump called the court’s decision “wrong” during a press conference at the White House on Friday afternoon. When asked about the refund, he referred back to the court and said “it takes months and months to write an opinion and they don’t talk about that point.”
“I think there will have to be trials for the next two years,” he said.
When pressed on whether he plans to reimburse companies that apply for refunds, Trump said, “It’s out of the question. We’re going to end up in court for the next five years.”
After the announcement of the Supreme Court’s decision, lawyers’ associations and some government officials immediately started asking for refunds from companies that paid taxes.
We Pay the Tariffs, a group of small businesses opposed to Trump’s tariffs, immediately called for “full, swift and automatic refunds.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who filed a lawsuit against Trump’s tax last year, said in a statement that “every dollar illegally taken must be returned immediately – with interest.”
After the court’s ruling, two members of Congress, Steven Horsford, D-Nev., and Janelle Bynum, D-Ore., introduced a bill that would require Customs and Border Protection to “automatically refund taxes and excise duties collected under the IEPA beginning January 1, 2025,” according to the release.
In his rebuttal, Kavanaugh added that the refund would have “major consequences for the US Treasury.”
However, in early January, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters that if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tax, getting the money back “wouldn’t be a problem.”
Bessent noted that it would be a “business boondoggle” and questioned whether companies like Costco would refund their customers. He added that refunds could take weeks, months or “more than a year” to come out.
Despite the confusion over how the refunds will pan out, economists say Trump has other options he can explore to implement tariffs, adding another layer of confusion over how companies are repaid.
Just a few hours after the Supreme Court decision, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he plans to sign an executive order imposing a 10% global tax rate.
