Trump said Iran will ‘soon’ have missiles capable of hitting the US A 2025 intel report said it will take 10 years.

In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Donald Trump appeared to offer another reason for not taking military action against Iran, saying it is working to develop missiles capable of striking the US “soon”.

“They have already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they are working to build missiles that will soon arrive in the United States of America,” he said.

It was the first time that the president or another US official had identified Iran as ready to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM. So far, US intelligence agencies and European governments have said that Iran could eventually build an ICBM under the cover of its military space program if it chose to do so.

But US intelligence and military officials have never publicly warned of an imminent threat from a possible ICBM program.

A Defense Intelligence Agency report released last year said Iran “has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a military-capable ICBM by 2035 if Tehran decides to pursue force.”

A US official told NBC News that Iran has been building an ICBM and making progress for years but there is no sign of new progress.

It is not clear whether Trump’s comments on Tuesday indicate that the US government has decided that, in fact, Iran has decided to pursue an ICBM or whether Tehran can achieve that capability more quickly than previously assessed.

Asked how close Iran is to developing an ICBM capability, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters: “I can’t imagine how far, but they are certainly trying to achieve – and this is not new – they are trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles.

“For example, you saw them trying to launch satellites into space,” Rubio added during a trip to the Caribbean. “You’ve seen them … increasing the range of missiles that they have now, and they’re clearly moving in the direction of one day being able to build weapons that can reach the continental US”

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, “President Trump is right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran, a country that chants ‘death to America,’ with intercontinental ballistic missiles.”

Iran has denied it has an ICBM program, and State Department spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Trump’s speech on Tuesday was full of “huge lies.”

Iran’s UN mission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Iran’s missiles, which were bombed during the 12-day war with Israel in June, include medium-range ballistic missiles that can travel 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers, or 621 to 1,864 kilometers. Those weapons would allow Iran to strike targets throughout the Middle East and parts of Europe.

Projection timelines for missile or nuclear weapons programs are always a challenge for analysts inside and outside the government, and experts disagree on how long it would take for Iran to build an intercontinental missile.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the nonprofit Arms Control Association, said he believes Trump’s comments about Iran’s possible pursuit of an intercontinental ballistic missile amounted to “exaggeration.”

“Iran has ballistic missiles that can reach targets in the region,” Kimball said. “They don’t have the ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile, and even if they do, they don’t have a nuclear weapon that can topple that system.

“It seems that Trump wants to exaggerate the threat posed by Iran, in terms of scope and proximity,” he added.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said it was unclear how far Iran would go in developing an ICBM. But he said Tehran has redoubled its efforts to expand its missile program, including a potential intercontinental ballistic missile.

“Despite the obstacles placed on the regime’s missile program through sabotage, sanctions and strikes, it continues to move forward, even with one arm tied behind its back,” Taleblu said.

Iran has resumed space launch vehicle testing after its air war with Israel in June, Taleblu said. “Iran’s testing of at least two launch vehicles into space after the 12-day war should ring a bell about the regime’s intentions here,” he said.

In an October interview with Ben Shapiro, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran was developing long-range missiles that could put US cities at risk.

“Iran can harm any American city,” Netanyahu said. “People don’t believe. Iran is building intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 8,000 kilometers; add another 3,000 and they can reach the US East Coast”

Experts say Iran can take advantage of technological overlaps between satellite launch vehicles and ballistic missile systems and that its investment in advanced guidance systems could pave the way for an ICBM.

US intelligence agencies have warned for decades that Iran could use its military space program to develop ballistic missiles and predicted that Tehran would face an immediate technological challenge. A 1999 US intelligence estimate said Iran could test-fly an ICBM that could threaten the US by 2010.

In a 2024 global threat assessment released publicly, US intelligence agencies said Iran’s work on space launch vehicles could shorten the timeline to produce an ICBM if Tehran chooses to develop one.

The United Kingdom, France and Germany accused Iran in a joint 2024 report of using space launch vehicles – which put satellites into orbit – as a cover for testing technology related to ICBMs.