Japan’s leader faces ‘very difficult’ meeting with Trump as he seeks help on Iran

Few world leaders seem to get along with President Donald Trump and Sanae Takaichi. But Japan’s prime minister could be heard during a visit to the White House on Thursday, as Trump grows increasingly frustrated with his war with Iran.

Takaichi, 65, will be the first leader of a major US ally to meet with Trump since he demanded that a coalition of countries, including Japan, help secure the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that Iran has effectively blocked, disrupting global trade and sending energy prices soaring.

Before going to Washington on Wednesday, Takaichi, who said Japan has no plans to send navy ships to escort the ships to port, told lawmakers he expected the meeting with Trump to be “very difficult.”

“It’s hard to guess how much is at stake,” said Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies and history at Temple University’s Japan campus. “And you’re walking a tightrope because the Japanese public doesn’t support the US war in the Middle East at all.”

Japan is heavily dependent on the United States as an export market and for security in an increasingly militarized environment.

“Since Japan is in an ever-more-dangerous environment with Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and China’s regional ambitions, it is very important for Japan to maintain a strong alliance,” Kingston told NBC News in an interview.

Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, got off to a strong start with Trump shortly after taking office in October, appearing with him as he spoke to US troops aboard an aircraft carrier at Japan’s Yokosuka Naval Base. He also benefited from being mentored by the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was close to Trump.

Hugely popular at home, Takaichi led his Liberal Democratic Party to a historic victory in the lower house of parliament in snap elections last month.

Takaichi’s three-day trip to Washington was timed ahead of Trump’s long-planned trip to China, allowing him to have “one last word in his ear” before his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Kingston said. But Trump delayed his trip to China this week to focus on Iran, and his meeting with Takaichi will now be dominated by the Islamic Republic instead.

Japan has avoided endorsing or directly criticizing the US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on Feb. 28 and instead asked for a reduction. The conflict is unpopular in Japan, whose post-World War II constitution prohibits its soldiers from defending themselves.

Although Takaichi, a hard-line hawk, has accelerated Japan’s defense spending and wants to revise its anti-war constitution, “he will not send a Japanese warship into the Straits of Hormuz firing range,” as putting Japanese soldiers in harm’s way would jeopardize his national security goals, Kingston said.

Instead, he said Takaichi “has to figure out what he can do that will be enough to put President Trump down?”

He may ask to help sweep the mines, Kingston said, as Japan is particularly concerned about disruptions to power supplies from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which has hit Asia hard. Japan, which imports almost all of its crude oil from the Middle East, began releasing a record 80 million barrels of oil from state reserves on Monday, about 45 days.

For Japan, the escalating conflict in the Middle East is also worrying because it takes US attention away from the Indo-Pacific, where China is considered a growing security threat by Tokyo and other US allies. Some US troops are deployed to the Middle East from Japan, which usually hosts about 50,000 people.

Takaichi, a staunch supporter of Beijing’s island nation, Taiwan, has been at loggerheads with China since November, when he told lawmakers that China’s attacks on the sovereign democracy could prompt a military response from Tokyo. Takaichi refused to accede to China’s demands that he retract his “outrageous” statement, which was in line with Japan’s longstanding policy but was unusually public for a sitting prime minister.

On Thursday, Japan rejected a US assessment that Takaichi’s remarks marked a “major change” in policy, with a government spokesman telling reporters it was “not true.”

Iran will also compete with Japan’s desire to discuss trade, after the US Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s global tariffs last month. Japan says it wants to keep its existing trade deal with the US, which imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese goods in exchange for Japan’s pledge to invest $550 billion in the US.

Kingston warned that the meeting between Takaichi and Trump “could easily go south,” because “Trump is a bad-hearted person and you have to catch him in the right place.”

If anyone can pull it off, said Takaichi, a veteran of Japan’s patriarchal politics “who has figured out how to deal with powerful men and how to get what they need.”