Israel claims to have killed another Iranian leader, but that does not mean it is winning the war
Although many experts have warned that Iran could and would close the road if attacked, the crisis seems to have surprised those who prosecute the war.
President Donald Trump has tried to persuade allies to send ships to help reopen the strait, something most of them have refused to do. In an angry letter to Truth Social and later speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said that the US did not need NATO “but it should have been there.”
Rouzbeh Parsi, an adjunct professor at Sweden’s Lund University, agreed that the killing “probably will not affect the practical side of the war.”
But the targeted killings would disrupt the effectiveness of Iran’s internal affairs, according to Michael A. Horowitz, a political and security analyst.
“They can confuse command, slow decision-making, force successors into hiding, and discourage leadership and foot soldiers alike,” he said.
He described Larijani as “an important piece of that puzzle, as someone who acted as a mediator between different actors within the Islamic Republic.” His death “could increase internal tensions in the short term, even if it ends up strengthening the IRGC in the long term.”
That point is key, and one that has been made throughout the controversy since Khamenei’s assassination. Many Western observers fear that, by ousting Iran’s current leaders, it will create a vacuum to be filled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country’s feared, political and economic force.
“If you look at how the assassination of Ali Khamenei has strengthened the fundamentalist and security forces within the Islamic Republic of Iran, then Larijani’s death can act as an acceleration in that direction,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, policy officer at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
One of the many hats worn by the pragmatist Larijani was his role as the lead negotiator tasked with finding common ground with Washington.
“Israel seems to be focusing on targeting those who may seek a political solution to overcome Iran’s problems at home and abroad,” Geranmayeh said.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the allegations.
Israel’s war was launched on a fragile international scene after its invasion of the Gaza Strip.
A new NBC News poll showed that more registered American voters view Israel negatively than favorably, a change from a few years ago. And Iran’s retaliatory attacks on the surrounding Arab Gulf regions may not win Tehran new friends in the region, but it may also strengthen disillusionment with Israel’s actions.
It remains to be seen what internal conflicts and tactics the US-Israeli campaign will cause.
Israel used its assassination strategy with spectacular but mixed results in Lebanon and Gaza, killing Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar, the leaders of the Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas.
“Losing Nasrallah has had a major impact on the group’s ability to plan for a more difficult situation in Lebanon over time,” Horowitz said.
But, he said, “the team is still fighting.”
