Nearly a week after President Donald Trump touted lower gas prices as one of his economic victories, his actions are pushing back the cost per gallon.
The war that Trump launched by striking Iran has spread to the Middle East, where more than a quarter of the world’s oil is produced.
Gas prices rose almost immediately, undercutting a key data point in Trump’s argument with Americans who doubt the economy is growing.
“Gasoline, which reached a high of $6 a liter in some states under the previous – it was quite a disaster – is now less than $2.30 a liter in many states, and in some places, $1.99 a liter,” Trump said in his State of the Union address.
Although his numbers were higher than the actual figures, gas prices appear to be a major talking point for Republicans in the November midterm elections.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright stepped on the gas to reinforce the message that the administration is making gas cheaper for Americans.
But that was last week.
In the week since the State of the Union address, the price of a gallon of gas in America has risen 16 cents to about $3.11, according to AAA. It is impossible to know how much of that is due to the war in the Middle East, but many experts believe there is a strong correlation. Prices tend to rise from lows in February to highs in the summer.
Asked about the issue on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration expects tariffs to rise.
“We knew going in would have an impact,” he said.
Trump said he believed the increase would be a temporary problem. However, administration officials have offered a range of estimates on how long the conflict will last, and it would be difficult for the US to stop fighting if Iran continues to attack American assets and allies.
“As soon as this is over, those rates will be, I believe, lower than they’ve ever been,” Trump said Tuesday at the White House.
Republican strategists hope he’s right. Their party is trying to hold on to majorities in the House and Senate at a time when Trump’s approval ratings are still underwater. In particular, voters have said after the polls that they are not satisfied with Trump’s general economic situation and the prices of basic goods.
The length of time could be meaningful for GOP candidates.
“A small, short-term spike — even if it happens — won’t be a problem,” said Matt Gorman, a veteran Republican politician.
A second GOP official working on the midterm campaigns said the price hike will likely be temporary. But if not, he said, the consequences could be dire.
“If it’s alive, it’s really bad,” said the second, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid upsetting the White House. “Food prices are still high. Housing is still high. Gas is lower than it’s ever been. If that changes, and obviously higher gas prices increase the price of goods, where does that end?”
Despite the political risk of rising oil prices as a result of the war, some Republicans are praising Trump for taking action against Iran.
“Trump has done what is good for America even though it will cause higher oil prices,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who owns an oil supply company called Canary.
Democratic critics of Iran’s war have said rising gas prices are one of the reasons they are concerned about the strikes. Many of them say there is no conflict or consequence of the gas pump crowding that goes along with the “America First” slogan that Trump has promoted as his trademark for more than a decade.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who is widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, praised Trump in a column published Tuesday.
“This country does not want to see more Americans dead. The American people do not want higher gas prices, which will cause a spike at the pump because of this stupid argument,” he wrote. “They don’t want us to spend tens of billions of dollars on this war, all while millions of Americans lose health care. They don’t want to throw the Middle East into another chaos and unexpected violence while well-connected Pentagon contractors enrich themselves.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told NBC News on Tuesday: “The Republican base doesn’t want this. The Democratic base doesn’t want this. Independent voters don’t want this. Nobody in America is asking for their gas prices, their grocery prices, their construction prices to go through the roof. Nobody is asking in this country for more American soldiers to die in a war in the Middle East.”
In his 2024 campaign, Trump criticized President Joe Biden for stubborn inflation, promising to end it. And while the rate of inflation has fallen during Trump’s second term, it has remained high on his watch — and Americans’ budgets remain deflated.
White House officials note that domestic oil production is a buffer against international disruptions and say they are closely monitoring the war’s impact on US fuel prices.
“The Trump administration’s policies have led to the highest ever US oil production in our new market and deals with Venezuela,” White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said in a statement. “The Department of Energy and Treasury will continue to monitor oil markets and do everything possible to keep prices stable.”
Mark Bednar, a Republican strategist and former aide to then-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said Trump has a good understanding of market and political dynamics to adapt to wartime dynamics.
“If anyone knows the importance of affordable gas politics, it’s President Trump,” Bednar said. “His 2024 victory is, in part, due to his ‘Energy Dominance’ agenda, and so far his long-term policies to boost American manufacturing and cut the regulatory burdens of the Biden era have been largely successful.”
The administration’s preparations, including Trump’s announcement Tuesday that the US International Development Finance Corporation will guarantee the tankers and that the Navy may escort them to the Strait of Hormuz, “will be critical to keeping energy prices palatable to the American electorate,” Bednar said.
