WASHINGTON – The last chance to avoid war with Iran was played out Thursday in Geneva, when Trump administration officials told their Iranian counterparts that they must not take certain steps necessary to build a nuclear bomb.
It didn’t go well.
As the US delegation laid out its view that Iran will not be able to enrich uranium in the next 10 years, the Iranian side folded, said a senior Trump administration official who described the meeting on condition of anonymity.
Iran has an “undeniable right” to enrich uranium, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, told the Americans. And the US has an “indisputable right” to stop it, replied Steve Witkoff, a member of the US delegation.
After hearing the American demands, Araghchi began to yell at Witkoff, who was accompanied to the meeting by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, among others, the official said.
“If you want, I can go,” said Witkoff.
Representatives for Araghchi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
After that, the American delegation reported to Trump about what happened. Trump “didn’t care,” the senior official said.
By Saturday morning, the US was at war.
“Big wars” against Iran had begun, Trump said in a video released at 2:30 a.m. ET on his social media account.
The word was a distant echo of then-President George W. Bush’s statement when he boarded an aircraft carrier and, in front of a banner that read “Mission Accomplished,” announced that “major operations” against Iraq were over. Twenty-three years later, the president is different, the enemy is different, but the Middle East remains a hot spot for the US.
Trump’s decision to strike Iran and kill its leadership followed lengthy negotiations between the two sides that left him frustrated and convinced that a diplomatic off-ramp was out of his reach. And he wasn’t particularly keen on fighting. One reason for his caution was that he did not believe advisers had given him a clear picture of Iran’s postwar future, a national security official said in an interview.
Why did he finally decide to attack? NBC News asked him Sunday in a brief phone interview.
“They were not willing to stop their nuclear research,” Trump said. “They didn’t want to say they wouldn’t have a nuclear weapon. It’s very simple.”
Trump built his political career on a promise to avoid the foreign wars pursued by his predecessors, he said, without producing appreciable gains for the American people. In 2011, he predicted that then-President Barack Obama would start a war with Iran “to get elected” and because he “can’t negotiate at all.”
“I was elected to get out of these senseless and endless wars, where our great military is working as a police force for the benefit of people who don’t even like the USA,” he wrote on social media in 2019, during his first term.
However, he also promised to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, a position he stated last week in his State of the Union speech. Iran will “soon” have missiles that can reach the US, he told Congress. Another concern is that Iran could launch its own military offensive against the U.S. in the region if the Trump administration backs down, one senior official told reporters over the weekend.
“As president, I will make peace wherever I can, but I will never hesitate to confront threats against America wherever necessary,” Trump said in his State of the Union address.
With negotiations stalled after Thursday’s meeting, Trump began a war of his own choosing. How it ends could reshape the Middle East for the foreseeable future. A generation ago, Bush decided to pour blood and treasure into the same area of the world, which led to the death of nearly 4,500 US service members and made him a powerful figure in American politics. Now, it’s Trump’s turn to see if he can use America’s formidable military presence to destabilize Iran’s pursuit of an elusive peace.
One of the differences he points out from past presidents is that they do not preside over protracted disputes. He has shown a penchant for quick and decisive strikes. He told the Daily Mail on Sunday that the war could be over in four weeks or less.
In his video announcing the strikes, Trump said he would like the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the ruling regime, although there is no guarantee that the successors will rule differently.
Before the US and Israel launched their airstrikes, the CIA concluded that if the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line officials from the government, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Khamenei died in the attack; it is not clear whether the opposition party has been equipped to replace him. In January, Trump told Reuters that Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s late shah, “looked very good” but that he did not know whether Pahlavi was fit to lead the country.
“The problem here may be Trump’s attack for two or three days, declaring victory and walking away from it, which will not be enough for a coup,” said John Bolton, who was a White House national security adviser in the first half of Trump’s term but fell out with him. “His lack of forward, strategic planning could be a problem here.”
However, one of Trump’s supporters said that he is sure that Trump will see the war to a successful outcome.
“The president and his team do not believe that they are out of the woods,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, RS.C., in conversation. “They still believe that Iran is a threat and are closely monitoring the situation. The administration has prepared more strikes and actions in the coming days to end the occupation.”
Attacking Iran is not anointed. Trump had his private doubts. In a move forward, he pushed for a deal in which Iran would give up its nuclear weapons, along with some sweeteners attached. American negotiators said they offered to give Iran free nuclear fuel, but the regime said no.
At the meeting in Geneva, Araghchi’s response to the US request was “we don’t need any favors from you,” said a senior administration official. “‘We don’t want you to pay for our gas.’
Diplomatic talks in recent months have coincided with a major US military build-up in Middle Eastern waters, intensifying pressure on the Iranian government.
Negotiators held talks on Iran’s nuclear program on February 6 in Oman and again on February 17 in Geneva. In the midst of those meetings, a report emerged that Trump had ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford – the largest aircraft carrier on the ship – to sail from the Caribbean to the Middle East.
Trump said unequivocally on February 13 that he wanted another company in the region, “in case there is no deal.”
But Trump used other tools to keep Iran on edge. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress last month that the U.S. deliberately touched the economic crisis in Iran that led to massive street protests earlier this year that disrupted the regime. By creating a dollar shortage in Iran, the US forced Iran to print money, which caused inflation and fueled animosity within the leadership, Bessent said.
Trump, meanwhile, had his doubts about the attack, according to a national security official. He did not believe that the war plans would give the strong result he wanted. No one could give him certainty about what the strike would be, said the official.
Still, Trump left little doubt that he might order the attack. On February 19, he gave Iran a deadline of 10 to 15 days to agree to the deal, warning that “really bad things” would happen if they did not respect him.
No one in Tehran could think that he was making a mistake. He has already struck the country once, sending B-2 bombers in June to blow up nuclear facilities, saying they were “destroyed.”
On Friday, the day after Kushner and Witkoff met with Iranian leaders, Trump said in a speech in Corpus Christi, Texas: “Now we have a big decision to make. You know that. It’s not easy, it’s not easy.”
On the same day, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, advised embassy staff that those who want to leave Israel should “do it TODAY.”
From Texas, Trump flew to Mar-a-Lago, his home in Palm Beach, Florida, where he monitored the strike with top advisers, as he has done in many foreign strikes this time. He also took time out on Saturday to attend a political fundraiser at his beach resort.
A photo released by the White House showed Trump wearing a USA football cap, sitting at a table with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles. On the wall was a map of the Middle East showing American shipping.
“Operation Epic Fury” began at 1:15 am ET on Saturday (9:45 am in Tehran). The US has deployed B-2 stealth bombers, fighter jets, missiles, rockets and other weapons systems that the Defense Department would not disclose. They target Iran’s navy, missile sites, command and control headquarters and air defense systems.
The timing was not accidental. Both American and Israeli intelligence agencies have been tracking Khamenei’s whereabouts. The intelligence agency said he would meet with top deputies that morning, according to two people briefed on the matter.
Instead of starting this operation at night, the leaders continued this incident during the day in the hope of killing him and his group, people said.
Trump said in an interview with NBC News that the program was “ahead of schedule, and obviously, when we get 48 leaders, that’s a big event.”
The attack over the weekend shook Iran and set off a crackdown on the regime. An explosion was heard in the center of Tehran near the Ministry of Intelligence, and hundreds of targets were hit.
Air raid sirens went off in Israel, warning of incoming Iranian missiles.
Airlines have canceled more than 1,500 flights scheduled to arrive in the Middle East as missiles fly back and forth.
An Iranian strike in Kuwait killed three US service members and wounded five others, two US officials said.
In his public statements over the weekend, Trump, now a wartime president, appeared to be targeting the American people for more victims.
“Sadly, there may be more before it’s over.” That’s right,” he said in a video released on Sunday afternoon.
