Katz warned on Monday that hundreds of thousands of people who left their homes south of the Litani River will not be able to return until “the safety of civilians” in northern Israel is “guaranteed.”
That raised fears about how long a full-scale attack — or a local presence — might take.
“It’s going to be huge,” said Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. who previously served as deputy director general and head of the Palestine desk at Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs.
“More and more because we have to remove the entire border between the border and the Litani River,” said Michael, who is also a member of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy.
Fears about a long-term settlement have grown amid direct calls from some for Israel to permanently control the area south of the Litani River, citing the security benefits it could provide Israel.
An editorial in the Jerusalem Post last week quoted David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister, as identifying the river as the natural northern border of the Jewish state.
With Israeli forces moving from town to town and a wider campaign looming, many in Lebanon have expressed frustration with Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government vowed in 2024 to disarm the militant group as part of a UN effort to end hostilities with Israel.
Since then there has been little progress in disarming the Iran-backed group, although the Lebanese government moved earlier this month to freeze its military activity as it sought to show it had no desire to continue the conflict.
In a joint statement on Monday, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom called for “meaningful dialogue” between Israel and Lebanon to implement a political solution as they expressed grave concern over the escalating violence.
Bilal Y. Saab, executive director of the Washington-based consulting group TRENDS US, who served as a senior adviser at the Pentagon under the Trump administration, said he believed Israel was “trying to put as much pressure as possible on the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, to negotiate.” [and] disarm” the Iranian representative.
“If that doesn’t work, they’re going to think about escalating the global invasion,” said Saab, who also partners with Chatham House’s. Middle East and North Africa Program.
However, the country has been hit by scenes of despair and displacement overshadowed by events in Iran and the Gulf.
Cyril Bassil, Lebanon’s communications coordinator for the charity CARE, said pregnant women sleep on the side of the road, others on the beach or in parking lots.
Al Omar said he is determined to return to his home in Dahieh, or at least return to what is left.
“Our houses have been destroyed,” he said.
But “the south is our south,” he added.
“Whatever happens, it’s our home.”
Raf Sanchez and Mo Abbas reported from Beirut, and Chantal Da Silva from London.
