Despite Trump’s claims, there is no indication that the Iranian regime has lost its grip, Western officials and experts say

President Donald Trump said in his address to the nation on Wednesday night that the regime change has happened in Iran because all the first leaders of the country have died.

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But there is no indication that the dictatorial government has lost power or that followers of the slain leaders have diverged from the Islamic Republic’s ideology, according to many Western officials, US intelligence analysts and regional analysts.

The US and Israel say they have killed dozens of senior figures in the clerical government since launching their crackdown on Iran on February 28, including former supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

The airstrike killed Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and one of the most powerful officials in the country; Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; intelligence and defense ministers; and the killing of other senior officials, according to Israeli officials.

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But the regime shows no sign of collapsing, and the people who have replaced the top leadership are known to be equally tough or arguably more militant than their predecessors, according to Western officials and Iran experts.

“The new leaders of Iran have the same idea. They are all committed to the principles of the 1979 revolution and will rule with great brutality given its illegitimacy. They are more afraid of getting along with the US than in conflict with the US,” Karim Sajadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on social media.

It is not clear whether the administration has found a senior leader in the country who is willing to change the country’s relationship with the US and agree to the demands of Washington, as happened with the successor of the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, who was captured during a raid by the US military and brought to the US for prosecution.

Siamak Namazi, an American businessman and analyst of Iran who was held captive for almost eight years by the government, said that measuring the regime’s actions is now very difficult after the killing of so many leaders.

“What makes this regime more difficult than ever to predict is that the US and Israel just blew up a bunch of decision makers. We don’t know who is in charge from week to week,” said Namazi.

After the assassination of the supreme leader, Khamenei, on the first day of the war, Iranian government officials announced that his son, Mojtaba, had taken over. He has earned a reputation for being loyal to the government with close ties to other high-ranking military figures.

Trump said it is not clear whether Mojtaba is alive or dead.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), seen as the most powerful arm of the regime, with both military and economic reach, appears firmly in control and may be in a stronger position than before the conflict, experts say.

“The power of the IRGC as an economic and political actor, whether directly or through its elites, is already visible – and it appears to be dominating,” said Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project.

And it seems that the senior figures who seem to be in charge come from other parts of the Revolutionary Guard, some observers.

“A strong security-oriented group within the Revolutionary Guards is now in charge, calling the shots,” Namazi said.

As of March 18, US intelligence agencies assessed that the Iranian regime remained “standing but degraded by attacks on its leadership and military power,” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told lawmakers.

Two officials in the Middle East region say it is difficult to determine who is in charge in Iran. One of these officials said that there is a unified plan for people’s succession but in a country that is struggling with communication disruptions, it is not clear.

A Trump strategist said as recently as Monday that it was unclear who was in charge.

“It’s opaque right now,” Secretary of State Rubio told Al Jazeera in an interview. “It is not clear how decisions are made inside Iran.”

Trump said on Wednesday that the “president of the empire” had asked the US to end the war but did not give details of who he was referring to.

“The President of the New Iranian regime, less Radicalized and more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America to CEASEFIRE!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

A veteran of the regime has emerged as a potential key figure after the deaths of other leaders: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a hardline parliamentarian with deep ties to the Revolutionary Guard. It is not clear whether Ghalibaf is the person Trump called a “rational” person who conveys messages through indirect talks with the US. But Trump indicated that the US is communicating with Ghalibaf in a recent interview with the New York Post.

Ghalibaf, 64, is one of Iran’s leading figures, a former commander who has held high political positions for more than 20 years. He was also the country’s chief of police and oversaw the suppression of protests and internal dissent. While he was the mayor of Tehran for 12 years, Ghalibaf was accused of corruption, which he denies.

He once boasted on audio recording that he was proud to have participated in the beating of unarmed protesters in 1999. “I was among those who beat people in the street, and I am proud of that.

Vaez, with the International Crisis Group, said: “Ghalibaf, above all, is ambitious.