Democrats are starting to sweat over Virginia’s redistricting referendum

After redrawing the district’s congressional map in front of voters, some Virginia Democrats are growing uneasy about its prospects one month out from the special election.

Virginia Democrats entered 2026 riding a wave of momentum, effectively flipping the governorship and increasing their majority in the state House in last fall’s election. And when they enter the April contest, they hold huge benefits in fundraising and ad spend.

But recently, the realities of running a unique campaign in a nearly Democratic state like California, where voters approved a redrawn map through a similar process last year, have begun to emerge.

Some proponents of the Virginia referendum acknowledge the challenge of convincing voters to support a messy map when Democrats, who a few years ago supported the creation of a bipartisan federal commission, criticized Republicans for similar measures.

Virginia voters also don’t usually go to the polls in April, when Democrats hold special elections, making it harder to run.

And recent polls showing mixed opinion polls and some favorable early voting numbers for Republicans have added to Democrats’ worries.

“It’s not a done deal by any means,” said Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va. “We must successfully make the case that while this may seem wrong in Virginia, it is right in America, for those of us who believe that taking back the House is the most important thing we can do to stop Donald Trump.”

Under the proposed map in Virginia, Democrats would be able to win up to four of the five seats currently held by Republicans in the fall midterm elections, when control of the narrowly divided House is up for grabs.

By comparison, blue-state California Democrats hope to pick up five of the eight Republican-held seats with their new congressional boundaries.

“It’s very easy to say, ‘Well, California just did this, so the same thing is going to happen in Virginia. But that ignores the fact that Virginia is a purple state,'” said one Democratic operative close to the campaign supporting the measure who spoke on condition of anonymity. “There are a lot of things you can’t control about who’s going to be a part of this election until the last minute. In the scheduled April election. We’re talking about reaching voters who are taught to check this time of year and then check again in the summer.”

The April election is the latest start in a battle that has been unusually involved in a decade. The push in Virginia comes in response to President Donald Trump pushing GOP-led states to redraw their maps to improve the party’s slim House majority. Six states — including Texas, Missouri and North Carolina on the GOP side — drew new maps last year, and the biggest Democratic offensive came in California.

Virginia’s process was more complicated: Before they could put it on the ballot, lawmakers had to pass a constitutional amendment to temporarily bypass the state’s redistricting commission during two separate sessions, with an election in between.

But voters may not have the final say on the matter. While the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the special election to go forward, it also reserved the right to determine the validity of the measure after the race.

Nevertheless, the main group supporting the redistricting referendum has established a large financial advantage.

That group, called Virginians for Fair Elections, has spent or saved $17.2 million in advertising from Jan. 1 to April 21, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Meanwhile, the main group opposing the effort, Virginias for Fair Maps, spent or withheld $1 million during the same period.

Supporters of the measure have spent much of their ads arguing that a change in the redistricting process is needed after Trump’s redistricting in Republican-led states.

One Virginias for Fair Elections ad shows former President Barack Obama saying “Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to hold the next election and exercise unchecked power for two more years,” adding, “but you can stop them.”

Elsewhere, the narrator highlights that Trump “told Texas to cut their congressional maps” – and that “we can stop Trump by voting for fair elections.” Notably, the ad paints Virginia’s measure as a “temporary fix to level the playing field.” And another casts “MAGA Republicans redrawing congressional maps” as “one of the biggest threats to democracy.”

The proposed constitutional amendment would return congressional redistricting powers to a partisan commission after the 2030 census.

Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who spoke about the issue cautiously in her winning campaign last fall, also recorded a video expressing her support for the push for redistricting.

In a statement sent to NBC News, he said he saw the poll as a “temporary measure to respond to redistricting efforts in other states” and that “Virginia voters deserve a chance to respond to the President’s nationwide pressure campaign.”

Ads run by Virginians for Fair Maps reinforced the process used by Democratic lawmakers and linked it to an effort to oppose Trump and Republicans on immigration.

“Richmond politicians are drawing new congressional districts to take this game into their own hands,” a fan said in one ad, adding that the move “will protect the city’s policies that put dangerous criminals back on our streets.”

Another site highlights how voters passed a constitutional amendment creating a bipartisan commission in 2020 by nearly a 2-to-1 margin.

“Republicans and Democrats have worked together to put politicians out of the business of choosing voters,” a commentator said at the site, adding that a win would “end competitive elections in Virginia and silence your voice.”

Meanwhile, another group opposed to the measure sent mailers targeting black voters with images of the Jim Crow era, sparking an outcry.

Recent polls have shown Virginians support a bipartisan redistricting commission, but are less convinced of a Democratic-backed referendum.

A Roanoke College poll of Virginia residents conducted in mid-February found that 62% supported the state’s current way of drawing federal maps. When asked about amending the constitution, 44% said they would vote to pass it, while 52% said they preferred to continue with the existing system.

A mid-January poll of Virginia registered voters from Christopher Newport University similarly found that 63% supported the current redistricting process. But the survey showed a small majority, 51%, also supported the temporary constitutional amendment, while 43% were against it.

Threading the needle on not completely abolishing the commission while seeking a more partial map must be a major hurdle for supporters of the referendum — which some Democrats strongly oppose to the amendment.

“There is a large group of people who don’t like Donald Trump – like me – who are worried that he stole the midterms and destroyed our democracy – like me – but who don’t think that this is a smart way to get revenge, or that we need to do this in Virginia,” said Brian Cannon, who works for the Democratic Alliance in Virginia who advocated for the passage of the partisan commission.

Cannon, who now works for the election reform nonprofit FairVote and helps lead the group No Gerrymandering Virginia, asked: “As we fight Trump, are we becoming what we hate?”

That sentiment is one of several changes that lead Republicans and opponents of the redistricting measure to feel cheap.

“We’ve seen a significant increase in energy and, frankly, anger among voters who are starting to see what’s going on,” said former Republican Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, co-chair of Virginians for Fair Maps. “And I feel that anger motivates people to vote in April.”

Pointing to the Virginia Public Access Project’s analysis of the first ballot, which began March 6, Cantor said those numbers are “going our way, especially in Republican areas.”

“We feel really happy where we are,” he said.

The Democrats say their work is still being done in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Beyer, who represents the northern state of Virginia, said they will need to persuade voters to “hold their noses because this is a response to Trump’s abuse.”

“We don’t like to do it, it’s temporary, and the alternative is to fold and let the bad guys cheat,” he added.