How the Iran war is hitting the fertilizer: ‘It’s a very dangerous time’ – National
The plans surrounding Canadians’ spring farming will change dramatically following the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz – and the spillover effects on the global fertilizer supply.
The narrow waterway near Iran carries much of the world’s energy and fertilizer imports and is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, but shows no signs of reopening due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.
The ocean is responsible for one-third of these nutrients, such as urea, nitrogen, sulfur and phosphates, according to Kreg Ruhl, vice president of plant nutrients for Growmark.
Currently, Iran threatens any ships that try to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada Michael Bourque said in an emailed statement to Global News that “as a global commodity, any impact on fertilizer production can be felt throughout the market.”
“Continued instability in the region also has the potential to disrupt global trade, especially in key corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, which play an important role in the movement of energy, fertilizers and many other goods.”
The timing is not good for those who need these products, as the seasons change and the demand is set to increase.
“The whole world is competing for limited supply available, and we’re getting ready to go into the fields and plan next year’s crops in the next 30 to 60 days in most of North America, so the timing is very critical,” Ruhl said.
‘You’re going to be in trouble’
Canada produced 32.8 percent — about 76.1 million tons — of the world’s total potash, an important mineral in fertilizers, by 2024.
It remains the world’s largest producer of potash, according to Natural Resources Canada.
But that doesn’t mean Canada or Canadian farmers will be completely shut out of global supply chain issues. Ryan Flitton, co-owner of Twin Valley Farms in Ontario, emphasized that more than potash is needed to make fertilizer.
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“Obviously, there’s nitrogen and other nutrients that we need, nutrients that we don’t produce in Canada.” So, to make that perfect product to help farmers, you need more than just potash,” he said.
“Also, you need affordable fertilizer.” This is not always the case in Canada, most of the fertilizers we produce in Canada are for export markets.
“We do not eat what we produce, but in fact we are used to eating things imported from other countries. That is why it is a challenge.”
Ruhl also said the biggest impact Canadian farms will face is price volatility.
“That is combined with how farmers have been dealing with the ongoing ‘farmgate’ economy that is not good for them, so the increased prices of inputs are making the challenges of the farmgate economy more difficult.”
Philip Rumley, a grain producer at North Rumley Farm in southern Alberta, said the farm is “really seeing” an increase in fertilizer prices.
“The rumor is that we are going up to $1,200 a ton for urea. So, if you haven’t bought your fertilizer yet, because it’s less than a month, you’re going to be in trouble,” he said.
“If they close the Strait of Hormuz, nothing comes in and nothing comes out. So that affects the global price of everything because we are locked in the global market.”
However, Mike von Massow, a A food economist at the University of Guelph, he said it’s not just potash that will be affected.
“If you look at what goes through the Strait of Hormuz to Canada, liquefied natural gas comes to Eastern Canada, some comes to Eastern Canada, that if we had pipelines or other ways to transport it, we could supply it from western Canada,” he said.
“Therefore, we may see little impact on commodity prices.”
Bourque said “farmers are encouraged to contact local agricultural dealers for the latest information on fertilizer supply in their area.”
It’s not the first hurdle Canadian fertilizer suppliers have faced this year
It’s not the first upheaval for Canada’s fertilizer and agriculture industry.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizers “if necessary” in December 2025, putting the future of Canada’s fertilizer business in jeopardy.
The Trump administration has previously raised tariffs on several key imported fertilizers, effective Nov. 13. 2025. That came after 25 percent tariffs were imposed on Canadian and Mexican goods in March 2025.
Canadian potash imports into the US initially faced a 25 percent tariff, which was soon reduced to 10 percent.
Despite the uncertainty, Nutrien, a Saskatchewan-based company that supplies global crops and services, told The Canadian Press in February that it “expects potash sales to be between 14.1 million tonnes and 14.8 million tonnes this year.”
Along with the changing seasons, demand for products reaches an annual peak at an uncertain time.
“Fertilizer has two seasons [fall and spring] and it’s different for each type of geography,” said Ruhl.
“But when I think about our Eastern Canadian business, that’s primarily the spring market, especially for all products except nitrogen, and that’s probably the most affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
— via files from Global News’ Heather Yourex-West.
