Can the US wrest the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, the region’s military power? – Nationally
The war in Iran has dragged on for more than a month, with no clear resolution as more US troops move into the region.
Thousands of troops from the US Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division have begun pouring into the Middle East, Reuters reported on Monday, as US President Donald Trump weighs his next steps in the war with Iran.
The paratroopers, based out of Fort Bragg, NC, add to the thousands of additional sailors, Marines and Special Operations forces deployed to the region. Over the weekend, about 2,500 Marines arrived in the Middle East.
This comes as the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is deploying 10,000 additional troops to the region and the Washington Post said the Pentagon is preparing for “weeks of global operations in Iran.”
However, some experts warn that a further attack on Iran could be a long-term plan, even for the US military.
“For context, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 saw 150,000 coalition forces during the first attack. The United States does not have that in theater yet,” said Alexander Salt, a senior researcher and managing editor at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute based in Ottawa.
While the US military’s success in Venezuela may have emboldened Trump, the difference between Iran’s and Venezuela’s military capabilities is like “night and day,” Salt added.
“Iranian forces can attack American forces better than Venezuelans,” he added.
First, Iran has one of the largest armies in the world.
How big is Iran’s military?
According to some estimates, Iran had 570,000 soldiers as of 2023 and 350,000 soldiers, making the total less than a million pairs of boots. This is beyond military power.
“It’s a really big army and it’s still intact. There’s a chain of command,” said Kevin Budning, director of scientific research at the CDA Institute.
“Actually, it’s about the cost of the war, who is it?” [got] stomach to extend this action and continue fighting,” he said, adding that the war is “absolutely present” for the Iranian government.
“The Iranian strategy is very clear to continue the sanctions for as long as possible and wait for the Americans to move on,” Salt said.
What are the key challenges for the US?
In addition to nearly a million soldiers, Iran has an array of military assets, including both short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.
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“The Iranians can be lethal, and that’s something the United States hasn’t seen in high numbers in this recent conflict,” Salt said.
Iran has already used its resources to successfully block the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off one-third of the world’s oil supply.
This is also the kind of conflict Iran has spent decades preparing for, Salt said.
“They certainly prepared for what could happen in the years leading up to the present with the acquisition of various types of military technology (including) drones, missiles of various types, and naval equipment, including anti-ship mines,” Salt said.
While a full-scale attack may be difficult to carry out, Budning said the US military might signal that the US is looking to carry out smaller operations in the region, such as raids.
One such US objective would be to control Kharg Island, a strategic location in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said in a tweet on Monday that the United States was negotiating a “reasonable regime” to end the war with Iran, but he also issued a new warning about the Strait of Hormuz.
“Much progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not reached soon, which is likely to be, and if the Strait of Hormuz is not ‘Open for Business’ soon, we will end our nice ‘occupation’ with Iran by blowing up and completely destroying all of their Power Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island,” Trump wrote.
The island is important, not just to Iran’s war effort but to its entire economy, Budning said.
“Kharg Island is Iran’s economic base. 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports are (sent) there,” Budning said, adding that Iran will do everything it can to prevent the US from taking over the island.
“It’s going to take boots on the ground to do that. It’s going to take a significant service-wide operation or pan-domain operation – air, land and sea,” he said.
Iran saw the attack on Kharg Island as an escalation, prompting it to step up its attacks on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure and embolden Yemen’s Houthi rebels to block the Red Sea, another important shipping route, Budning said.
“The United States and Israel have lost the ability to launch a heavy attack. It has been a few weeks, thousands of targets. Iran is holding strong with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.
Removing Iran’s nuclear facilities will be difficult, too, a new analysis published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies said on Monday, despite the “strategic prowess” of the US and Israeli forces.
“Despite clear intelligence, as shown by the Israeli attack in 2024 on the Masyaf missile production site in Syria, and the capture of US special forces Nicolás Maduro in Caracas in January 2026, they are putting boots on the ground to capture or reduce HEU, in a hostile environment, said the vague report.”
The US is running out of military options to resolve the conflict quickly, Budning said.
“The question is not whether the United States and Israel can win a war against Iran. But whether they can do so quickly and effectively and at an acceptable cost,” he added.
With the US midterms approaching and domestic desire for less war, Trump is likely to seek a road soon, Salt said.
The deployment of troops to the region would be a “compelling diplomatic signal” from Trump to the Iranian regime, Salt said, to bring them to the table and discuss the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“It’s…that, look, if you don’t do what we want, we might go up to lower power,” said Salt.
“I will not be surprised if (Trump) just declares that he has won, just makes a statement regardless of the situation and ends the conflict,” he said.
– via files from Reuters
