Trump said Iran ‘disappeared.’ Then an American F-15E fighter jet was shot down.
WASHINGTON – Less than 48 hours after President Donald Trump told the American people that the US military had “struck and destroyed Iran,” Tehran shot down an F-15E fighter jet, setting off a high-risk US airstrike to rescue two Iranians. Iran also shot down two Blackhawk helicopters and an attack aircraft that were assisting in the search and rescue effort.
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The horrific events put into stark relief the growing challenge facing the president as the war enters its second month: Despite a daily bombing campaign and its wartime victory narrative, Iran maintains enough military power to inflict significant damage on US service members and American allies and assets in the Middle East.
“They don’t have anti-aircraft stuff,” Trump said of Iran in a speech this week. “Their radar is 100% destroyed. We are unstoppable as soldiers.”
About half of Iran’s missile arsenal remains intact and thousands of single-launch strike aircraft remain in place, according to a U.S. official and a person briefed on the matter. Most of the missiles stored underground in Iran also remain intact, the sources said. And, they said, Iran could still launch missiles from submarines across the region.
“Even at the rates they’re firing at now, they’re going to be able to sustain it for a while,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank, referring to the Iranians. He said Iran is also getting better at hiding its weapons.
The Iranian F-15E attack on Friday was the first time in decades that a US fighter jet was downed by enemy fire. One of the crew members was rescued, while the US military is looking for the other. There were minor injuries to a US military Blackhawk helicopter, and the pilot of the attack aircraft, an A-10 Thunderbolt, safely exited Kuwaiti airspace, according to a US official.
But the development signaled a potential turning point in the war for the American people, as the White House’s account of how the war is going – which emphasizes US military success and downplays the threat that Iran still poses – collides with its harsh realities. A senior White House official said Trump assembled his security team at the White House on Friday evening to monitor ongoing events.
A White House spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Earlier this week, the White House assured the American people that Iran no longer controls its country’s airspace. “The combined forces of the US and Israel control the skies and maintain air sovereignty over Iran,” White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said Monday.
But since Trump delivered his address to the nation on Wednesday – in which he hailed a “swift, decisive, and stunning victory on the battlefield” – Iran has launched at least 50 missiles and more than 150 drones targeting the US and its allies in the Middle East, according to figures compiled by NBC News.
At least 16 US Reaper drones have been downed since the war began, including two this week, a US official said.
Trump also argued that the Iranian regime had been killed and that another sympathizer holding diplomatic talks with his administration to end the war was in power. The president has sent mixed signals about how and when the conflict might end, while fuel prices continue to rise due to Tehran’s ability to choke off oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz with its drone and other cheap weapons. Trump told NBC News on Friday that talks with Iran would not be affected by the F-15E’s downing.
Iran, however, says there are no direct talks. And the US has no indication that Iran’s authoritarian government has lost power or that the followers of the slain leaders have broken with the Islamic Republic’s anti-Israel, anti-US stance, according to many Western officials, US intelligence assessments and regional analysts. The Iranians who have replaced the top leadership are known to be equally tough or arguably more militant than their predecessors, the sources said.
It has been difficult to independently assess the state of the war, including the level of US military success, in part because there is little public information available from the Trump administration. The US has released general data and videos about targets or missiles launched, and there is no independent news media linked to American forces as was the case in previous conflicts.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the US has airspace superiority over the western and southern parts of Iran, but currently in the east. Grieco, a fellow at the Stimson Center, said the US does not have the upper hand in the east, and Iran has seized its ability to harm the US and escalate the conflict through asymmetric warfare, including drones, hidden missile launchers, sea mines and small attack boats used in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian people “still have the power and the power, and the real question for me is, how much power can they do with that power and the power they have?” he said. “What we are seeing is an asymmetric war playing out in the air and at sea.”
Iranian media on Friday published images supporting claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that it had shot down an F-15E. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf later fired Trump from X’s position.
“After defeating Iran 37 times in a row, this brilliant and strategic war they started has now been downgraded from ‘regime change’ to ‘Hey! Wow. What an amazing development. Absolute geniuses.” One service member remains missing.
Trump finds that the US is increasingly divided, as allies stand still and refuse to enter a war they didn’t negotiate joining before it gets going.
Trump stepped up his attacks on European allies this week, mocking NATO members’ refusal to show “courage” and take the lead in cleaning up the Strait of Hormuz. He is also angry that the United Kingdom, France and Spain have not allowed the US access to their airfields and military bases to attack Iran. The NATO Secretary General was headed to the White House next week.
