Can Lebanon’s Hezbollah survive another war with Israel?

High in the hills of Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, much of the heart of the city of Nabi Chit is in ruins from an Israeli airstrike.
The destroyed buildings have a large pit full of debris. One side of the former apartment building is missing, leaving an open space.
Two weeks into this deadly new war between Israel and Hezbollah, the mayor of Nabi Chit stands on the brink of destruction.
“We are not entering [the Israelis]. They are the ones attacking us,” Hezbollah supporter Wehbi al-Moussawi told CBC.
“We will all come together and kill them with our own hands,” he said. “We will not let the Zionists achieve their dreams.”
His comments are central to Hezbollah’s messaging, leaving out the fact that Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he said, dragging Lebanon into a wider war.
Now, Hezbollah’s intentions are being thwarted by Israeli airstrikes. Smoke billows from southern Beirut every day.

In central Beirut, a multi-storey building suspected of hiding millions of rands in gold and Hezbollah money underground was struck for the second time on Wednesday morning, collapsing completely. It was part of a new wave of attacks.

Some in Lebanon are calling this the “last war,” an ongoing war against Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist organization by Canada and many other countries.
With its ally Iran being attacked by the US and Israel, and the Israel Defense Forces attacking Hezbollah’s weapons and infrastructure and killing its top leadership, can the group survive this war?
“Since Iran is weak, Iran will no longer be of much use to Hezbollah,” said Brigadier General Khalil Helou speaking in Beirut.
“In terms of money, in terms of weapons, in terms of logistical support and training, I think this will be very difficult.”

But he warns Hezbollah has shown it still has the ability to launch rockets into Israel, sometimes working with Iran.
Almost every day, rockets and drones reach parts of Israel, proving that Hezbollah is still a serious threat, he said.
“The ability to fire 200 missiles in one day or in a few hours is really a feat,” Helou said, referring to a major strike coordinated with Iran last week.
The disparity of military and air power
“In the end, Hezbollah failed,” Helou said, noting that Israel’s military and air force far outnumbered those of the militant group.
“The Israelis, they are strong, but will Hezbollah still exist in a few months? The answer is yes.”
Some in Lebanon, however, are fed up and quietly want Israel to finish the job, said Ali Hamade, a political analyst and writer for An-Nahar newspaper in Beirut.
“You will hear a lot of Lebanese, Christians, Druze, and even many Sunnis, saying that they want to eliminate Hezbollah by any means,” he said.
“They don’t like Israel, they know it’s a problem, but they want this saga of Hezbollah to end.”

Canada, the UK, Germany, France and Italy in a joint statement this week said Hezbollah must stop firing rockets into Israel and urged Lebanon and Israel to find a political solution.
During the escalating war, Hezbollah controls access and messaging. To visit Nabi Chit, in the hills, we had to have a Hezbollah escort lead us in and out of the town.
Checking who is coming in and out
It’s the same wherever Hezbollah is in control – it acts as a military force that checks who comes in and who goes out. It sends invitations to the media to visit the affected areas, controls who speaks for the militant group but without vetting what is reported.
Hezbollah has spread to many parts of Lebanon and has strong support, especially in the Shia communities in the south, areas south of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley in the east.

“Even if we lose all our homes, we will not mourn the rubble,” said Jano Alawie, who fled his home in the south because of temporary security in Beirut.
“Resistance protects us.”
We met Alawie at the Islamic school doubling as a shelter. He was the only person allowed to talk to us.
“When our child is born, his first name is Hezbollah. What do you think he will say when he grows up?” he said.
As Israeli and Hezbollah forces continue to exchange strikes, analysts say the Iranian-backed Lebanese army is losing fighters, infrastructure and its ability to rearm. For The National, CBC’s Susan Ormiston examines its control and visits a village in the Bekaa valley to find out why people still support the group, despite years of fighting.
More than a million people in a country of nearly six million have been forced to leave their homes, according to Lebanese authorities. Many of those are from Shia villages in southern Lebanon.
The humanitarian crisis threatens to weaken security in Lebanon, Helou said.
“What the Israelis are doing is that they are solving their problem, but they are transferring their problem to other parts of Lebanon.”
Back in Nabi Chit, we are guided by our Hezbollah to the local cemetery, where there are new graves. In the corner is an unmarked site that has been excavated and covered.
Israel said its troops arrived here on March 7 to find the remains of an Israeli plane that went missing in Lebanon nearly 40 years ago. In this terrible incident of the night, it is reported that they hatched a plot but did not find anything. Local fighters were involved in putting out the fire and 41 people died, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.
At the cemetery, a man appeared pointing to two graves decorated with flowers. He said two cousins ​​were killed that night.

Mohammed al-Moussawi speaks to us in English, saying that Israel will not be able to eliminate Hezbollah.
“They are trying, let’s try” “father.” “Eventually they will stop, they shoot and play with lions.”
There is no time to wait
We can’t delay – the trip goes to the next stops in the nearby villages hit by airstrikes that morning – and the Hezbollah guide encourages us to hurry back to our car.
In Tamnin al-Tahta in eastern Lebanon, smoke rises from a pile of twisted metal and concrete rubble. The fire is smoldering inside. Ten people died, including four children, the Ministry of Health said. Some of them were Syrian workers and their families.

A man who tells us he is a farm worker takes us into his tent to show us where explosives blew up a wooden structure and ripped holes in his tuk-tuk parked outside.
There is nothing here, he said of the attack site, which appeared to be a cement factory.
Israel says it is hitting Hezbollah infrastructure and weapons storage and launching but there is no confirmation on what the target was.
More than 900 people have been killed so far in Lebanon during the two weeks of war, according to the country’s Ministry of Health.
There is growing pressure from the international community, including Canada, for the Lebanese government to negotiate with Israel, but so far Israel is rejecting negotiations until Hezbollah disarms. Hezbollah rejects the disarmament in the face of what it calls continued Israeli violence.
A previous ceasefire and disarmament agreement was negotiated and in 2025 the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL, the United Nations force, worked to free Hezbollah south of the Litani River to the Israeli border.

It was partially done, Ali Hamade said, “but they never said it was a deep clean.” Hezbollah still has an arsenal to draw on, he said.
With the outbreak of war here on March 2, the Lebanese government officially announced the closure of Hezbollah’s military activities and refused to launch any missiles or drones into Lebanese territory, but how that will be enforced now, in the midst of an active war, is unclear.
“The Lebanese are watching and living in peace with this whole dangerous situation,” Hamade said.




