Who will be the next supreme leader of Iran? One name, Mojtaba Khamenei, stands out.

The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the early hours of the US and Israel war in Iran he has raised a simple but very important question: Who will replace him?

For nearly four decades, Khamenei has sat atop Iran’s complex power structure, serving not only as the country’s highest religious authority but also as a political decision-maker. His execution in the office space and his residence in Tehran he has created space in a system built above all to prevent that kind of instability.

Officially, the decision now rests with Iran’s Assembly of Experts, a powerful clerical body tasked with choosing the country’s supreme leader. In fact, the result will almost certainly come from a much smaller circle: senior clerics, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the security establishment that have long supported the Islamic Republic’s power structure.

Several names have already appeared. But one stands out.

Mojtaba Khamenei

The leading contender is Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s second son.

Unlike many figures in Iran’s high ranks, Mojtaba has never held elected office. But for years he worked quietly in his father’s office, developing influence throughout the security establishment, especially within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

He studied theology in Qom and fought as a young volunteer during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, credentials that still carry weight among the rebel group. However, his authority mainly comes from his proximity to power rather than his religious status.

He is believed to have deep ties to senior figures in the Revolutionary Guard. That is especially important in Iran’s political system, where the Guard wields enormous military, economic and political power.

Georgetown University professor and Iran expert Mehran Kamrava, in Doha, said Mojtaba’s succession may reflect the nature of the survival plan.

“The deep state in the Islamic Republic wants to continue,” Kamrava said in an interview. “If indeed Mojtaba is chosen as his father’s successor, it will show more than anything else that the Islamic Republic is trying to ensure continuity.”

During the reign of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader managed to maintain authority over the Revolutionary Guard despite the organization great power within the state.

Kamrava believes that Mojtaba is seen within the Iranian power structure as someone who can maintain that balance.

“The perception inside Iran is that Mojtaba has the same high position in relation to the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards,” Kamrava said.

If he is eventually elected, it will show that Iran’s ruling elite has chosen stability over exploration at a time of great stress.

It will also mark something unprecedented in the Islamic Republic: a leadership transition that effectively keeps power in the same family.

And while Mojtaba may be at the forefront, he is not the only person being discussed.

Ali Reza Arafi

Another prominent name is Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a major cleric deeply embedded in Iran’s religious institutions. Arafi serves on both the Care Council and the Professional Council and has spent years overseeing Iran’s network of Qom seminaries.

After Khamenei’s assassination, Arafi was reportedly appointed to the interim leadership council tasked with guiding the country through the war and succession process.

Sadeq Larijani

Another potential candidate is Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, a former justice chief and member of one of Iran’s most powerful political families. Larijani has long been seen as a viable candidate due to his clerical qualifications and deep ties to the country’s political establishment.

Hassan Khomeini

Some commentators also pointed to Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Among clerics and reformist circles he commands respect, although his limited reputation would make him a difficult choice for the Iranian establishment.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

Hardline cleric Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri has also been listed as a potential contender due to his views aligning with the most radical factions in Iran’s political system.

Unprecedented challenges

Whoever emerges as the next supreme leader, the circumstances surrounding this leadership change are unprecedented.

Khamenei was killed on time the opening phase of the war which has already been extended beyond the borders of Iran, with missile and drone attacks flowing across the Gulf and the wider Middle East.

Several Iranian officials were also reportedly killed in the initial strikes, eliminating potential takeovers and further narrowing the field of candidates.

President Trump said Iranian officials working to select the next supreme leader are “wasting their time.”

“Khamenei’s son is a lightweight, I must participate in the nomination, like Delcy [Rodriguez] Venezuela,” Mr. Trump said, referring to interim president who took power after the US kidnapped Nicolás Maduro.

Leadership changes within the Islamic Republic are often carefully planned affairs. The last one took place in 1989 after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and involved heated discussions between clerics and politicians before Khamenei came out as a step down.

This time the process takes place during an active war.

Kamrava believes that another factor shaping Iran’s future leadership is the change taking place within the Revolutionary Guard.

Most of the commanders who defined Iran’s military posture for decades were veterans of the Iran-Iraq war. He said that experience made them more real.

“The commanders of the Revolutionary Guards were killed by those who cut their teeth in the Iran-Iraq war,” said Kamrava. “They saw the war was near and they prepared it.”

Their replacements, however, represent a different generation.

“The new generation … is very strong, not very smart,” Kamrava said.

That change could end up shaping Iran’s direction more than the next supreme leader knows.

Despite the shock of Khamenei’s assassination, few analysts expect Iran’s political system to change overnight. Kamrava was direct when asked if a change in leadership could bring significant change.

“I don’t think we will see any major changes in the way the Islamic Republic behaves,” he said.

The system may adjust intelligently. In the past, Iranian leaders have relaxed some social restrictions after major problems to ease domestic pressure.

But strategically, the power structure within Iran remains the same. The clergy, the Revolutionary Guard and the security agencies still rule the state. And their priority, especially in wartime, is stability.

Whoever emerges as Iran’s next supreme leader will inherit a country under severe stress: an escalating regional war, a battered economy and a population that has repeatedly rebounded. they were taken to the streets in protest in the last ten years.

The Islamic Republic has survived crises before. But this time is different. For the first time since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s supreme leader has been killed in war – and the system he helped shape is now being tested in real time.