The big question looming over Trump’s State of the Union: From the political desk

This is the online version of the From the Politics Deska daily newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC Political News team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

Ahead of tonight’s State of the Union address, Peter Nicholas delves into the economic crisis facing President Donald Trump, while Steve Kornacki lays out how the midterms are shaping up.

Editing note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the newsletter later tonight, where we’ll recap and analyze the key moments of Trump’s speech.

NBC News and NBC News NOW will air special coverage of the address beginning at 9 pm ET. Follow once our live blog for real-time updates and reactions.

– Adam Wollner

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

– Adam Wollner

The big question facing Trump’s State of the Union

Analysis by Peter Nicholas

Tonight the State of the Union presents the President Donald Trump huge TV audience and perhaps the best chance he’ll get before the midterm elections to show voters that, yes, he understands they feel pressured by high rates.

The question is, will you seize the moment?

Before the speech, Trump was heard complaining that the Democrats have gained ground because many Americans believe that health is unaffordable. His argument is that he won high inflation from the Biden administration and deserves credit for reviving the economy.

“I succeeded in being able to buy myself,” he said in Georgia last week.

Americans aren’t buying it. The poll shows the extent to which the public has soured on his handling of the economy – once a strong point. A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed that only 41% of adults approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 57% who disapproved.

Trump is more prone to blame Joe Biden and they argue that he has brought the US economy to a new level rather than admitting that he still has work to do in that regard. His message often sounds like he has fixed a problem that, in the eyes of many Americans, still persists.

The once “dead” nation is now the “hottest” in the world, Trump likes to say. If that’s the message tonight, voters might not budge.

“It’s the American people who decide these issues are important — not politicians,” Newt Gingrichformer Republican House speaker and Trump ally, said in an interview.

What will we hear from Trump? White House advisers suggested before the speech that Trump would acknowledge that times are tough for some Americans and that he has a plan to fix things.

White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt he told reporters this morning that Trump “is going to introduce an agenda that is very important, I think, to the working people of this country to make America more affordable and more prosperous and safer, and to make the American dream come true.”

Trump’s speech may search to give tonight that people’s difficulties are behind them. But 90-plus minutes of Trumpian self-aggrandizement may not match the mood of the country. A speech he can make the need to provide for the sake of the Republican Party that the crisis is real and needs to be addressed – now.

Gingrich, who ran for president in 2012, said Trump should say, “‘We have a plan that will flood the market with goods and services and lower costs and it will be much less expensive than Biden’s.’ It’s not complicated.”

Trump’s speech comes amid a difficult situation for the GOP

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

He is only one year into his second term, but tonight could mark the last time that President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address to the Republican-controlled Congress.

Traditional indicators point to a challenging situation for the GOP in the midterm elections. According to the latest national opinion polls, Trump’s job approval rating sits at 40%. That’s exactly where it was at this point in 2018, when his team suffered through the year. And it almost goes with the place Joe Biden it was 2022, there Barack Obama it was in 2014 and 2010, and where George W. Bush it was 2006. All of those presidents saw their parties lose control of at least one chamber of Congress in that midterm.

In terms of what the public says are their top issues, Trump also fared poorly: According to the poll, 40% approve of his handling of the economy and 43% approve of how he handles immigration and the border. He also appears to be losing support among key groups. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released this week shows 30% of Hispanic voters and 29% of voters under 30 approve of his performance. On his victory in 2024 Kamala HarrisTrump did surprisingly well in both polls.

Democrats are already showing momentum at the ballot box. In the special election of the House since Trump returned to the White House, the candidates of the Democratic Alliance posted an improvement of between 13 and 23 points compared to the presidential election of 2024. And in last November’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats scored big victories.

Is there any comfort in all this for Trump and the GOP? Possibly others.

The Democratic success in the special election is likely due to the uneven motivation of each party’s base, with Democratic voters eager to use any opportunity to register their opposition to Trump. The imbalance is key in a low-water special election, but its impact will be blunted in November, when interest and voter turnout will be at their highest.

The House battleground is also narrowing due to polarization and partisan gerrymandering. In the 2018 midterms of Trump’s first term, Republicans were defending 48 seats in states that had voted for Trump in 2016 or that Trump had won by less than 7.5 points. This year, they have only 23 seats that fall into that category. Ironically, Republicans can take inspiration from Biden and Democrats here: In 2022, even if Biden had approval ratings equal to Trump’s today, Democrats would lose only nine seats in the House.

However, even nine seats are more than the GOP can afford to lose in 2026. A three-point swing is all Democrats need this year to win control of the House — and to ensure that when Trump arrives in next year’s State of the Union chamber, he will be greeted by a Democratic speaker.

Some things to know before tonight’s address:

• Trump’s guests will include Erika Kirkthe widow of a conservative activist Charlie Kirkand parents of Sarah Beckstroma 20-year-old National Guard member who was shot and killed in Washington, DC, last year. Members of the US men’s hockey team are expected to attend a speech after visiting the White House this afternoon.
• More than a dozen House Democrats have invited Jeffrey Epstein’s survivors to be their guests.
• In an official Democratic response, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger he plans to focus on immigration, immigration and the “chaos” caused by the Trump administration.

📊Poll: How long will Trump’s speech last?

Tonight will mark Trump’s sixth State of the Union/address to a joint session of Congress. Courtesy of NBC News’ Monica AlbaHere’s how long each of those talks took:

2025: 1 hour, 40 minutes

2020: 1 hour, 18 minutes

2019: 1 hour, 22 minutes

2018: 1 hour, 20 minutes

2017: 1 hour

Trump said yesterday: “It’s going to be a long speech, because there’s a lot to talk about.”

With that in mind, how long do you think Trump will speak this time? Vote in our student poll: