Trump is heading into the State of the Union amid declining voter confidence in the economy

President Donald Trump has spoken before Congress many times. But when he delivers his State of the Union address on Tuesday, he’ll be standing on unfamiliar political ground: Americans watching the speech don’t trust him on the economy.

An AP-NORC poll this month found that only 39% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 59% disapprove. The rating is recent, but not out of the question, with other polls showing Trump’s economic approval rating under water.

Over the past year, Trump has seen his ratings on the issue sink. That is in stark contrast to his first scandal, when he broke even or enjoyed broad economic approval, even in the fall of Covid-19, according to the same AP-NORC poll.

The public perception that Trump is good for the economy has become a valuable political commodity. Dating back to his first campaign, Trump’s business experience and claims to understanding the economy attracted some voters who disagreed with him on other issues.

In 2016, Trump edged out Hillary Clinton as the best economic manager, according to polls, which was a key part of his victory. In 2020, Trump broke with rival Joe Biden on the economy and, although he lost, he won with open hands the voters who put it as their top issue.

And in 2024, Trump dominated among voters worried about the economy, it appeared in exit polls, helping him sweep all seven states and win the White House.

But since he returned to the White House, voters have soured on Trump on the economy amid persistent dissatisfaction with higher spending, polls show, a shift that has energized Democrats and raised eyebrows among Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

“People are angry about what they see from this administration. Families are struggling, and Republicans are not giving up,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chairwoman of the Democratic DRM Campaign Committee, last week on NBC News’ “Meet the Press Now.” “They promised to reduce costs on Day 1. It was a big promise.”

Trump has dismissed the election showing a downturn in the economy as “fake” and raised the stock market to argue that things are going well. The key question for his State of the Union speech is whether he will use this time to continue his strategy or change direction in his economic message.

Republicans say their midterm message will be that they’ve been mistreated on the economy and that things are improving because of their actions in the red trifecta.

“After Joe Biden’s legacy of disastrous spending on the economy, President Trump and the Republicans are delivering real relief to the American people,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement, referring to provisions in Trump’s “great, good bill,” such as strategic tax breaks and overtime pay, as well as deductions for seniors. “The difference is clear: Republicans bring relief where it counts while Democrats want to go back to their failure mode.”

How people approach tax season is important. Some Republican strategists privately worry that voters’ concerns about the economy aren’t a problem they can fix with better messaging — and that voters must feel a boost in their pockets to change the GOP’s political fortunes ahead of the fall election.

An NBC News poll in October found that only 34% of registered voters said Trump had “met” their expectations on the economy, while 63% said he had “failed.” The answers were similar when asked how Trump has done on helping the middle class and dealing with the cost of living.

A Fox News poll last month found Trump started 2026 with a 40% approval rating on the economy, with 59% of registered voters disapproving. And 68% of voters said Trump was not spending enough time on the economy.

Trump has promised a “golden age” of American economic recovery in his second term and insists it is coming. He touted the “Greatest Economy in Our Country’s History” and sought to defy polls that showed a majority of Americans disagreed with him.

“False polls on the Economy, on the border, on almost everything, are ridiculous and dangerous. The REAL Polls have been GREAT, but they refuse to print them,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last month.

Last week, while defending his stock prices, he told reporters, “Our stock market just broke 50,000 in the Dow and at the same time it surprisingly broke 7,000 in the S&P.”

An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll on Sunday found Trump unfavorably on handling the economy (41% approve, 57% disapprove), handling prices (34%-64%) and handling inflation (32%-65%).

One political bright spot for Republicans in Congress: Their Democratic counterparts don’t have a cost-of-living advantage, according to the survey. It found that 32% of American adults trust Trump to handle it, while 31% trust Democrats in Congress. And 33% said they don’t trust it at all.

While the polls pose a political challenge to his party, they have limited impact on Trump’s strength in the year-to-date, which he credits to his administration’s expansive views of his administration and his still-high approval rating among GOP voters. Trump’s supporters control the House and Senate, reducing Democrats to a minority in limited areas of opposition. And Trump has a strong hold on many Republicans, using his power to threaten to fire lawmakers who oppose him in the party’s primaries.

The Supreme Court is the most involved in nearly a century, proving Trump’s biggest disdain for the executive branch. But there’s an exception: It delivered a surprise rebuke to him last week by enacting most of his taxes on a 6-3 vote, with three GOP nominees opposing him. Trump has fired back at the ruling, and has even chosen to cite another authority to impose tariffs, which has a 150-day limit under the law. So Congress will once again be required to weigh in.

Still, the tariffs — taxes paid by importers on products entering the US — have left some Democrats reeling from the political hope of Republicans voting to continue in the last midterm elections.

“Trump is forcing House Republicans to campaign on tax hikes all year long, despite all the evidence that it’s bad politics and everyone hates them,” DCCC spokeswoman Viet Shelton said. “Good luck with that!”